This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued by the U.S. Forest Service Glacier Country Avalanche Center at 8:00 AM, Friday, December 28th for the Glacier Park and Flathead and Kootenai National Forest areas. HAZARD ANALYSIS Between 5500 and 7500 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being rated as CONSIDERABLE on steep open unanchored slopes. Between 5500 and 7500 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being rated as MODERATE on sheltered anchored terrain. Below 5000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being rated as LOW. These danger ratings expire at midnight, Friday, December 28th. The outlook is for the avalanche danger to remain near at least the current levels through the weekend. Because of the general nature of this advisory message, each backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site specific avalanche hazard evaluations. WEATHER ANALYSIS: Colder temperatures ranging from 15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit with steady new snow accumulations have been the norm for the past week. The seasonably cold temperatures have been consistent across the area especially since Christmas Day. New snow accumulations for the past week have been fairly consistent across the region with most high elevation snowtels indicating gains ranging from 2.4 to 1.8 inches of snow water equivalent. This has resulted in 10 to 17 inches of new snow (20 to 40 cms) in the last week. Winds have transported snow at upper elevations ridge tops. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS: Our backcountry observations Thursday were from the Deep Creek drainage and Skookoleel Creek drainage on the Flathead National Forest and from Flatiron Mountain in the Purcell Range on the Kootenai National Forest. Please visit the GCAC web page for the recent observation(s) on the Flathead National Forest. At least we can say we have had winter for a week or two. Stability tests have revealed easy to moderately easy failures within the new storm accumulations since 12/20. Variability is the norm though with some locations reporting ho hum reactions during stability tests and other observations, revealing shooting cracks and settling during travel across terrain. Last weeks burst of natural and triggered releases have settled some but lingering concerns remain with the colder temperatures that have preserved weak interfaces in the surface 20 to 60 cms of the snowpack. Variation with snow accumulations are apparent with elevation and aspect. Some south and west aspects are showing lower snow accumulations but the cold temperatures on these aspects have more readily preserved weak interfaces. Lee slopes and upper elevations are locations with deeper snow pack and near surface faceting is occurring in the new or most recent storm accumulations in the surface 30 to 50 cms. AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION: Between 5500 and 7500 feet in elevation we are currently rating the avalanche danger as CONSIDERABLE on steep unanchored open terrain... unstable slab layers are probable on this type of terrain. Natural avalanches are possible, while human triggered avalanches are probable. Backcountry travelers should be very cautious in steeper terrain. Be aware of potentially dangerous areas of unstable snow. Between 5500 and 7500 feet in elevation we are currently rating the avalanche danger as MODERATE on sheltered anchored terrain...unstable slab layers are possible on steep terrain. Natural avalanches are unlikely, while human triggered avalanches are possible. Backcountry travelers should use caution in steeper terrain on certain aspects. Below 5000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being rated as LOW... snow is generally stable with only isolated areas of instability. Natural avalanches are very unlikely, while human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Backcountry travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised. WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: ` A series of Pacific weather systems and relatively cool westerly flow is expected Friday through the weekend. The first weather system is expected to split and weaken Friday. However by Saturday a strong jet stream should help support a more vigorous Pacific weather system. As previously mentioned there is variability across our mountainous terrain. As always site specific observations are important and should be sought before crossing on steep open unanchored terrain. Stay "heads up" concerning pillowed catchment basins or lee slopes below ridge tops where snow has collected via wind transport, especially in association with convex rolls.. Pay particular attention when traveling in deeper snow accumulations. Shooting cracks and settlement are both indicators of instability and have been observed, if encountering such signs of instability seek out lower angle slopes or anchored terrain. The most important concern is watching and recognizing the effects of the new snow accumulations over the upcoming weekend. Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of snow pack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day the advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist. The next avalanche advisory will be on Tuesday, January 1st, 2008.