TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 12

 Good morning. This is Doug Chabot with the Gallatin National Forest
 Avalanche Advisory issued on Tuesday, February 12th, at 7:30 a.m.

 Northern Lights Trading Company, in cooperation with the Friends of
 the Avalanche Center, sponsor todays advisory. This advisory does not
 apply to operating ski areas.


 MOUNTAIN WEATHER

 Snowfall yesterday morning and again last night dropped 4-6 inches
 over our advisory area. Mountain temperatures are near 20F and will
 only slightly warm as ridgetop winds continue to blow 15-30 mph out of
 the WNW. Today will be partly to mostly cloudy with an unsettled
 system bringing snow late tonight and tomorrow. By morning I expect
 2-4 inches with more falling throughout Wednesday.


 SNOWPACK AND AVALANCHE DISCUSSION

 The last few days have been sunny, warm and pleasant for the first
 time in months. Sometimes we project the nice, friendly weather into
 thinking the snowpack is also nice and friendly. Well, snap out of it.

 On Friday an avalanche closed highway 287 by Quake Lake, on Saturday a
 natural avalanche released on the west side of the Bridgers and on
 Sunday skiers triggered a small slide and saw a natural avalanche
 area near Big Sky. Although we are seeing a trend toward
 stability, these avalanches are a sign that not all slopes are
 necessarily solid and safe out there.


 The Bridger Range:

 The Bridgers broke their weekend drought with 4-5 inches of new snow.

 The warm temperatures will help bond this new snow to the old surface.

 In areas near the ridgetops, or gullies where the winds have cross
 loaded slopes, its still possible to trigger a slide on wind
 drifted terrain. Last week, on the west side of the range, strong
 south winds loaded the thin snowpack resulting in a natural slide
 at the top of Middle Cottonwood drainage. For today, the avalanche
 danger is MODERATE on wind-loaded slopes. All other slopes have a LOW
 Danger.


 The northern Gallatin and northern Madison Ranges:

 The northern Gallatin and northern Madison Ranges are a mixed bag of
 stability. Folks are reporting good, stable skiing on Mt Ellis,
 while others found two small avalanches on wind-loaded slopes in
 Beehive/Middle Basin; one skier triggered and one natural. There are
 still plenty of slopes that I dont feel good about. In general, the
 thinner the snow cover the more unstable the slope is. Yesterday, Karl
 Birkeland went back to a wind-loaded slope near Cedar Mountain he
 extensively tested on Thursday. Last week he got cracking on the wind
 pillows and fractures propagating during many stability tests.

 This is in contrast to yesterday when he had no cracking and found it
 difficult to get fracturing except on the thinnest (<100cm) of
 snowpacks. These clean breaks illustrate the uncertainty still
 lingering out there; and uncertainty should translate into caution.

 For today, the avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on wind-loaded
 slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Slopes that are less steep have a
 MODERATE danger.


 The southern Madison and southern Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area
 near West Yellowstone,

 Yesterday, my partner and I went into the Lionhead area of the
 southern Madison Range. Like the mountains to the north, thinner
 snowpacks have weaker, more unstable snow. The natural avalanche near
 Quake Lake is a case in point. However, in most areas above treeline I
 was finding 6-7 feet of snow on the ground, most of it dense slabs
 stacked on top of one another. We could get these slabs to break
 cleanly, although we were finding they fractured as a result of
 density differences instead of faceted weak layers. Lucky for us,
 these types of instabilities are relatively short livedmeasured in
 days or weeks instead of months. Today, the avalanche danger is
 MODERATE on all slopes.


 The mountains around Cooke City, and the Washburn Range:

 In the last 5 days the mountains around Cooke City have gotten strong
 winds and almost 3 feet of snowfall. This alone is enough to cause us
 concern, especially on exposed, higher elevation slopes that got
 heavily wind-loaded. A thin layer of faceted snow buried 3 feet
 deep will be under additional stress making it possible to trigger
 slides. Today, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on recently
 wind-loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees. All other slopes will have
 a MODERATE danger.