900 AM PST MON DEC 24 2007 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST- Considerable avalanche danger above 4000 feet and moderate below Monday. Slowly decreasing danger Monday afternoon through early Tuesday becoming considerable above 5 to 6000 feet and moderate below. Danger increasing later Christmas Day through evening becoming considerable above 4000 feet and moderate below through Christmas night. * EAST SLOPES WASHINGTON CASCADES- MT HOOD AREA- Considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below Monday. Slowly decreasing danger Monday afternoon through early Tuesday becoming considerable above 6000 feet and moderate below. Danger increasing later Christmas Day through evening becoming considerable above 4 to 5000 feet and moderate below through Christmas night. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS The active storm cycle continues in the Pacific Northwest where some 5 to 8 feet of snow has fallen in the past 10 days. A warmer frontal system Sunday caused heavy rain or snow with the rain line reaching about 4000 feet in the Mt Baker area, near 6500 feet in the Central Cascade areas not affected by cooling affects of pass level easterlies, and above 7000 feet in the Mt Hood area. Cooler air help minimize any rain in the Cascade passes; however some brief freezing rain or wet heavy snow fell late Sunday. Significant cooling overnight and early Monday along with heavy snowfall has deposited some 10 to 20 inches of new snow over the heavy snow or refreezing crust. The warming and heavy loading causing a spike in avalanche danger late Sunday, likely triggering many natural slides. But as of early Monday there have been no such reports. The rapid and significant cooling as of Monday morning has helped to lower the current danger. However new unstable wind deposited layers have likely formed on most steep lee slopes at higher elevations above 4000 feet. A slightly greater danger is expected in the Mt Baker area where warming and stabilization was limited. The warming and rain or heavy wet snow at least at mid and lower elevations and in the central and south areas should have shifted the main concern to newer wind slab deposits. Where little or no rain occurred, there remains a significant concern for avalanches releasing down to the early December crust, or possibly to the ground in areas where the crust has weakened significantly over the past few weeks. Many field reports and recent snow pits are available on the NWAC web site, FOAC info exchange and TAY as well as elsewhere. Most backcountry travelers have heeded the warnings about the dangers in the snowpack of late and there fore have wisely confined travel to more protected terrain and lower angled slopes. Hence, many reports have indicated some great skiing and riding in those areas and it would be wise to continue to seek travel options in this type of setting. After helicopter bombing of the Silver Basin area at Crystal Mtn produced no results, one hand charge explosive Sunday caused a 6 ft slide to the early December crust that ran the full path. This should cause backcountry travelers concern about the possibility of deeper slides, especially on steeper wind loaded terrain that should be avoided. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT Light to moderate snow showers and moderate westerly crest level winds at further cooling should help build further unstable wind slab layers on steep lee slopes, mainly northeast through southeast facing where a considerable danger is expected. Decreasing snow and winds late Monday and midday night should allow for a slow decrease in danger. CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT Cool temperatures, light winds and mostly cloudy conditions early Christmas day should continue the slow settlement and stabilization of unstable surface layers. Increasing winds and snow developing late morning or midday. Snow becoming moderate to heavy late Christmas Day and very windy. This should again build new unstable layers and add further load to existing weak layers formed during earlier storms. The greatest danger increase should again be on steep lee slopes at higher elevation, shifting to north to northeast facing. &&