1230 PM PST TUE DEC 25 2007 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST- Considerable avalanche danger above 5-6000 feet and moderate below Tuesday morning. Avalanche danger increasing and becoming considerable above 3-4000 feet and moderate below Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning. Avalanche danger slightly decreasing Wednesday afternoon and evening. * EAST SLOPES WASHINGTON CASCADES- MT HOOD AREA- Considerable avalanche danger above 6000 feet and moderate below Tuesday morning. Avalanche danger increasing and becoming considerable above 4-5000 feet and moderate below Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning. Avalanche danger slightly decreasing Wednesday afternoon and evening. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS The active storm cycle continues in the Pacific Northwest with some 5 to 10 feet of snow near and west of the Cascade crest the past 10 days. A front Sunday caused heavy rain or snow with the rain line reaching about 4000 feet in the Mt Baker area and about 7000 feet in the Mt Hood area. Cooler air in the passes help minimize rain there; however some brief freezing rain or wet heavy snow fell at the passes late Sunday. The warming and heavy snow should have caused an avalanche cycle and some stabilizing late Sunday. I dont see reports of avalanches from Sunday but some reports on the Friends of the Avalanche Center and Turns All Year web sites indicate transient storm cycle instability. Significant cooling came by Monday along with 10 to 20 inches of new snow over the heavier snow or crust. Some 6-12 inch natural and triggered soft slab avalanches were reported by the Crystal and Mt Hood Meadows avalanche crews. These layers were reported to be sliding on the crust from Sunday. I would expect that some storm cycle slab layers would still be possible on lee slopes at higher elevations on Tuesday morning. A slightly greater likelihood is possible in the Mt Baker area where warming and stabilizing may have been limited. Otherwise most slopes should have partly stabilized over the past 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. The warming and rain or heavy wet snow at least at mid and lower elevations and in the central and south areas should have shifted the main interest to recent layers. Where little or no rain occurred, such as at higher elevations in the north Cascades or east of the crest, it might still be possible for avalanches to release to the early December crust. A report from the Mission Ridge avalanche crew, and a report on Turns All Year, indicates that this crust might be found at about 1-2 meters below the surface, with faceted snow above the crust. Releases of this type are generally not predictable and it is generally not worth digging snow pits this deep, but it could be worth avoiding areas above and below steep terrain rolls or cornices especially in the north Cascades or east of the crest. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT Increasing south to southwest crest level winds and increasing snow is expected Tuesday afternoon and night. Snow should become moderate to heavy Tuesday afternoon with cool temperatures. This should build some new storm cycle slab layers on lee slopes. Human triggered avalanches should become probable by late Tuesday. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT West crest level winds and orographic snow showers should continue into Wednesday morning. Up to 10-15 inches of new snow is expected near and west of the crest with continued cool temperatures. Convergence should enhance snowfall in the north and central Cascades. This should further build or maintain new storm cycle slab layers on lee slopes. Human triggered soft slab avalanches should be probable on lee slopes through Wednesday morning. Winds and snow showers should decrease by Wednesday afternoon. But back country travelers should continue to use caution and safe travel techniques such traveling on ridges and avoiding steep open slopes later Wednesday. &&