830 AM PST SAT JAN 05 2008 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST FROM MT RAINIER NORTHWARD- High avalanche danger above 4 to 5000 feet and considerable below early Saturday, with greatest danger on northwest through northeast exposures near higher ridges and west facing slopes near the passes. Little change in the danger on Saturday with greatest danger shifting onto northeast and east exposures. Slightly decreasing danger on Sunday with little change or a slight increase in the danger Sunday night, mainly in the south. * WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST SOUTH OF MT RAINIER, MT HOOD AREA- High avalanche danger above 5 to 6000 feet and considerable below early Saturday, with greatest danger on northwest through northeast exposures near higher ridges. Little change in the danger expected on Saturday with greatest danger shifting onto northeast and east exposures. Slightly decreasing danger on Sunday with a slight increase in the danger Sunday night. * EAST SLOPES WASHINGTON CASCADES- High avalanche danger above 5 to 6000 feet and considerable below early Saturday, with greatest danger on northwest through northeast exposures near higher ridges. Little change in the danger Saturday with danger accentuated on northeast and east exposures. Slightly decreasing danger on Sunday with little change or a slight increase in the danger Sunday night, mainly in the south. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS In most areas, the upper part of the deepening Northwest snowpack consists of further moderate to heavy amounts of new slightly heavier and higher density snow received during slow warming and increasing winds Thursday and Friday. This new snow was deposited over earlier wind slab and some generally weaker low density snow that were created in some areas on Wednesday. Along with a previously unstable snow structure this weather has produced an increased and generally high avalanche danger above 4 to 5000 feet in the Olympics and Cascades near and west of the crest from about Mt Rainier northward and above 5 to 6000 feet in the Cascades south of Mt Rainier and along the Cascade east slopes with considerable danger at lower elevations. Due to the recent very strong ridgetop winds, the danger should be accentuated on northwest through northeast facing slopes at all elevations with some scouring of recent snow and a generally lower danger on wind exposed terrain. The warming, loading and generally increasing danger on Friday resulted in yet another Northwest avalanche fatality, bringing the very sad seasonal total to nine. This most recent incident occurred near Lake Twenty-two below Mt Pilchuck in the north-central Washington Cascades Friday afternoon, when an avalanche caught three hikers, partially burying two and totally burying and killing one. At this point, very few details about the avalanche incident are available. It should also be noted that the most recent new snow has been deposited over previous large amounts...ranging up to 3 to 6 feet...of slowly settling older snow received late last month that lies over the faceting Christmas crust. Finally, all of this snow lies over some 4 to 6 feet of snow sandwiched between the weakening Christmas Eve crust and the old faceted early December crust which exists relatively close to the ground. While slow settlement and gradual strengthening of the snowpack between the two crusts has slowly diminished the possibility for deeper slides reaching the old early December crust, some isolated natural slides reaching this crust were reported as recently as last Wednesday, with fracture depths during the past week up to 8 to 12 feet. More frequent and slightly smaller natural slides releasing on the Christmas crust have also been reported, and this may have been the sliding surface for the 5 to 6 ft slab that resulted in the recent snowmobiler fatalities in the northern Washington Cascades earlier this week. These deeper weak layers are typically most easily triggered (but not exclusively) by larger loads, such as snowmobilers or larger groups...hence such travelers should be extremely cautious in avalanche terrain. However, the predominant slide activity in most areas is much smaller, involving only the most recently deposited snow with mostly 6 to 18 inch fractures in wind loaded terrain. No matter where you go, safe enjoyment of these large amounts of recent snow requires careful route selection and terrain management skills, as well as frequent updates as to slope stability and snow structure. DETAILED FORECASTS SATURDAY Moderate to occasionally heavy snow showers, lowering freezing levels and moderate to strong winds are expected Saturday morning and mid-day before briefly and slightly decreasing mid-day. With further moderate to occasionally heavy showers and moderate winds likely later Saturday afternoon and evening, this weather should maintain or slightly increase existing avalanche danger as further and slightly larger wind slabs develop on lee slopes, with the greatest danger shifting onto northeast through southeast exposures at all elevations. Surface cracking, whomping and remote triggering of avalanches are possible until the large amounts of recent snow have a chance to settle and strengthen. It should also be noted that storm related slabs releasing on weak layers within the most recently deposited snow may trigger isolated larger releases involving either some or all of the recent snow since late December. Hence travelers...whether they are skiing, snowboarding, snowmobiling, snowshoeing, hiking or climbing...are urged to avoid travel on or below steeper wind loaded terrain this weekend and confine travel to tree covered slopes or more gentle terrain without steeper terrain above. Please be aware, stay focused and make the rest of the 2008 winter season uneventful and accident free. SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT Decreasing showers and winds and low freezing levels are expected Saturday night and most of Sunday, before increasing light to moderate snow arrives Sunday night, primarily in the Mt Hood area and southern Washington Cascades. As a result of this weather, the avalanche danger should slowly decrease in most areas on Sunday as recent wind slabs begin to settle and partly stabilize. However, a slight danger increase is expected Sunday night in the south due to increased light to moderate snow and briefly increased winds which may redevelop some new slabs on a variety of exposures. &&