145 PM PST SUN JAN 6 2008 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES, MT HOOD AREA- Considerable avalanche danger below 7000 feet Sunday and Monday slightly decreasing. Significantly increasing avalanche danger Monday night. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS Storm cycles with periods of strong winds and heavy snowfall have been seen the past few days. Moderate to strong crest level southwest winds were seen Saturday which decreased late Saturday. Sites near and west of the crest generally have another 5-12 inches of snowfall Saturday morning with less at Snoqualmie. This may have built some new wind or soft slab layers on lee slopes especially at higher elevations. There has been about 2-4 feet of snowfall at sites near and west of crest the past 5 days again with less at Snoqualmie. All the recent storms and heavy snow by itself indicates increased avalanche danger especially where snowfall has been heaviest such as in the Olympics and near Mt Baker. A general snowpack structure near and west of the crest should be recent snow or slab layers, with a possible thin crust from about New Years, over 2-4 feet of recent snow over the Christmas crust. The early December crust should be deeply buried in the snow pack. Facets are still reported near the Christmas and early December crusts especially in areas of shallower snow east of the crest. Snow condition reports for the past 2 days are varied. The road to Hurricane Ridge was closed on Saturday due to heavy snowfall. The guides near Washington Pass report improving stability in areas with deeper snow, but slab instability and persisting faceted and weak layers in areas of shallower snow. The Crystal ski patrol reported areas of wind slab near ridges on Saturday. A ranger at Paradise reported a 2 foot skier triggered slab release on the New Years crust. Cracking and shallow wind or soft slab was reported from Mt Hood Meadows on Saturday. A back country skier near Blewett Pass on Friday on the FOAC web page reported sensitive wind slab on lee slopes at higher elevations. The highway crew at Snoqualmie and Alpental snow safety crew felt stability may have improved the past couple days partly due to lighter snowfall. Back country skiers on the TAY web page also report powder snow and some stable conditions on lower angle slopes. There have been no reports lately of releases to the Christmas and early December crusts. But these layers may still be sensitive to large triggers such as groups or perhaps snowmobiles. For this reason we would recommend cautions and one at a time travel in exposed areas or travel on ridges and lower angle slopes. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT Moderate southwest crest level winds, snow showers, and cool temperatures are expected on Sunday. This should maintain some wind or soft slab layers while allowing older layers to partly stabilize. Wind or soft slab layers are most likely on lee slopes at higher elevations but are possible on slopes at lower elevations as well. We recommend greater than usual safety margins due to uncertainty of conditions or that less experienced persons stay in controlled areas such as the ski areas on Sunday. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT Lighter winds and mostly cloudy weather should be seen on Monday. This should allow wind or soft slab layers to further partly stabilize. But the cool temperatures may slow this process. While conditions should be a bit more stable on Monday we still recommend safe travel in the back country such as on ridges and lower angle slopes. Increasing winds and increasing snow should begin to significantly increase the avalanche danger starting Monday night. An avalanche warning is currently expected for Tuesday for a high danger above about 4000 feet in the Olympics and near and west of the Cascade crest. &&