900 AM PST SUN JAN 13 2008 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST- Decreasing considerable avalanche danger Sunday above 4-5000 feet and moderate below. Increasing considerable avalanche danger Monday above 4-5000 feet and moderate below. * WASHINGTON CASCADES EAST OF THE CREST- Decreasing considerable avalanche danger Sunday above 5000 feet and moderate below. Increasing considerable avalanche danger Monday above 5000 feet and moderate below. * MT HOOD AREA- Decreasing considerable avalanche danger Sunday above 5000 feet and moderate below. Increasing considerable avalanche danger Monday above 5000 feet and moderate below. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS Periods of strong winds and heavy snow with a warming trend has been seen the past few days in the Olympics and Cascades. There was about 4-6 feet of snowfall near and west of the crest last week. This was likely to have built denser heavier storm cycle slab layers especially on lee slopes at higher elevations. Reports of back country snow conditions were sparse last week likely due to the heavy snow and avalanche conditions. On Friday the Hurricane Ridge road crew reported two 3-4 foot natural slab avalanches one of which crossed the road. Extensive human triggered cracking and fractures of 1-2 feet were reported on Friday by the Baker, Alpental, and Crystal ski patrols. However I have not seen any reports of avalanches for Saturday. There has also been several or more inches of snowpack settlement the past couple days. This should indicate that recent storm cycle layers have diminished and partly stabilized, and that avalanche danger has decreased from recently. Reports from Saturday on Turns All Year and the Friends web sites showed slopes up to 35 deg were skied in the back country, along with some moderate stability tests, and some poor ski conditions. The deepening snowpack should also be transitioning to more usual maritime conditions. However I have continued the considerable level of danger forecast on Sunday due to the recent conditions and some uncertainty. SUNDAY Increasing fair and locally warmer weather is expected on Sunday. Avalanche danger should decrease due to the partly stabilizing snowpack. Local winter-like potential slab layers are most likely to linger on steep lee slopes. This should continue to be mainly steep north to east slopes at higher elevations. It is also possible that the sunnier warmer weather will cause damp or wet surface layers on slopes facing the sun. So watch for signs of damp or wet loose snow instability on slopes facing the sun. Since Sunday should be the nicest day in awhile dont leave your avalanche awareness at home and pay attention to expected varied snow conditions. I would recommend continued caution near avalanche terrain on Sunday. Fair weather on Sunday night should allow for further partial stabilizing. MONDAY Increasing southwest crest level winds and increasing clouds should be seen Monday morning. A moderate front will cross the Olympics Monday midday and Cascades Monday afternoon. Further increasing strong southwest crest level winds and increasing snow should be seen at most locations during that time with lowering snow levels. This may build new local wind slab layers on lee slopes. This should be mainly steep north to east slopes at higher elevations. Remember that an avalanche forecast is a general forecast of expected conditions and to make your own slope by slope evaluation in the back country. Also remember to keep track of your partner in the back country as a safety precaution due to other hazards such as tree wells. Decreasing winds and decreasing snow showers should help bring some partial stabilizing Monday night. &&