200 PM PST SAT JAN 19 2008 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST- Saturday: Increasing considerable avalanche danger above 4-5000 feet and moderate below. Sunday: Decreasing considerable avalanche danger above 4-5000 feet and moderate below. * EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES- Saturday: Increasing considerable avalanche danger above 5-6000 feet and moderate below. Sunday: Decreasing considerable avalanche danger above 5-6000 feet and moderate below. * MT HOOD AREA- Saturday: Increasing considerable avalanche danger above 6000 feet and moderate below. Sunday: Decreasing considerable avalanche danger above 6000 feet and moderate below. OUTLOOK TO MONDAY Considerable avalanche danger due to possible wind transport continuing at higher elevations on Monday. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS The last storm was Monday. This storm had strong west winds and began as rain or freezing rain in many areas followed by dramatic cooling. Hurricane Ridge and sites near and west of the crest in the north Cascades received about 8-20 inches of snow, while sites near and west of the crest in the south Cascades and along the east slopes received about 5-9 inches of snow. In most areas this should have produced an upper snow pack structure on lee slopes of 1-2 feet or more of new snow on a rain crust. This also produced isolated wind slab layers on lee slopes near ridges sliding on the crust early in the week. We do not have any reports of avalanches from Thursday or Friday. Our snow sensors indicated 6-18 inches of consolidation the past few days. The lack of avalanches and consolidation should indicate stabilizing. The upper snowpack especially near and west of the crest should be dominated by homogenous bonded crystals. Shear tests the past couple days on the crust have been varied and it should still be a good idea to check the bond at that interface. Snowballing and sun crusts are also reported on slopes facing the sun the sun the past couple days. Stable powder snow of increasing density with depth has been reported the past couple days on sheltered slopes. Significant surface hoar frost has also been noted the past couple days on shaded slopes. DETAILED FORECASTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT Increasing west winds and increasing light to moderate snow is expected Saturday. Up to a few inches of snow should be seen by the end of Saturday. This should be expected to build new shallow local wind or soft surface slab layers on lee slopes. This should be mainly north to east slopes at higher elevations. Surface hoar frost that developed late this week may act as a weak layer. Some natural or human triggered avalanches may be seen by late Saturday. Use increasing caution near avalanche terrain on Saturday. West winds and light snow showers should decrease on Saturday night. But cool temperatures should help new wind or soft slab layers to linger on lee slopes. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT Winds should decrease and light snow showers mainly near and west of the crest should end on Sunday with cool temperatures. Some clearing should be seen especially in the Olympics and north Cascades by Sunday afternoon. Partial stabilizing should decrease the avalanche danger. But new wind or soft slab layers may persist on steeper lee slopes at higher elevations due to the cold temperatures. Less than a few inches of snowfall in areas of light winds from Saturday would mean less of an avalanche risk. Remember that an avalanche forecast is an estimate of conditions and to make your own stability assessments. Further clearing but with increasing east or northeast crest level winds is expected Sunday night. OUTLOOK TO MONDAY Fair weather but with possible strong east to northeast crest level winds is expected by Monday morning. Such winds may transport snow and build wind slab layers on unusual west aspects especially near ridges and summits. Be sure to watch for blowing snow or firm wind transported snow if you are in the back country on Monday. A classic example of such a slope is the west side of Panorama Point above Paradise. &&