0800 AM PST TUE JAN 22 2008 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES, MT HOOD AREA- Locally CONSIDERABLE danger on west and southwest exposures above 5 to 6000 feet early Tuesday slightly decreasing later Tuesday and Wednesday; otherwise MODERATE avalanche danger below 7000 feet through Wednesday. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS Increasing snowpack settlement during the past few days has allowed for slow stabilization of the upper part of the snowpack and helped to slowly reduce the avalanche danger in most areas. However, very cold temperatures have made this stabilization a very slow process and have begun to facet the snow near last Mondays crust, as well as helping to produce generally weakening faceted snow throughout much of the top 1-3 feet of near surface snow. Also, strong east to northeast winds mid-late Sunday and Monday have created some unstable wind slabs and accentuated the danger on west and southwest exposures, where human triggered slides or isolated hard slabs remain probable. With intermittent clearing also producing sporadic surface hoar mid-late last week, some buried surface hoar may also exist under recent wind slabs and this may result in some sensitive though relatively local instabilities. Overall then, recent weather is producing some highly variable snow conditions dependent primarily on exposure: on wind exposed terrain, the recent high winds may have scoured many windward slopes down to a relatively hard old crust or wind hardened surface. On adjacent steeper lee terrain near higher ridges, winds may have resulted in some sensitive wind slabs ranging from 6 inches to 2 feet or more, with slabs developing over potential weak layers of buried surface hoar or some lower density snow over last Mondays crust. Some smaller though perhaps still sensitive wind slabs may also exist on wind affected west exposures at lower elevations near the Cascade passes. However, in wind sheltered areas, some relatively stable powder or recycled powder has been reported, though some cross loading by recent winds may have produced local shallow slabs on steeper terrain to the lee of minor ridges. All in all, the past, current and expected weather have made and should make for a snowpack structure that will be highly susceptible to a significant danger increase whenever more normal wintertime snowfall returns to the region. Most current model forecasts indicate that while a relatively weak disturbance on Thursday may produce a slight increase in the danger, a much more significant danger increase is likely next weekend when moderate snowfall and increasing winds may load a very weak snowpack structure. DETAILED FORECASTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY Mostly fair and cold weather Tuesday should be followed by continued mostly fair and slightly warmer weather Wednesday, with most warming confined to mid and upper elevations in the southern Washington Cascades, Mt Hood area and the Olympics. Along with continued further gradually diminishing ridge top winds, this should allow for a slow and slight decrease in the danger as recent winds slabs start to slowly settle. However, cold temperatures in all areas on Tuesday and at most lower elevations Wednesday should make any stabilization a very slow process. As a result, back country travelers should use considerable caution when approaching slopes showing evidence of wind transport, with stability and slope tests strongly recommended to determine both the bond of recent snow to last weeks crust as well the presence of any buried surface hoar. Also, clearing overnight combined with decreasing winds should produce excellent conditions for continued surface hoar growth, and relatively cool temperature in most locations should allow for continued faceting and weakening of snow layers near last Mondays crust. All of these potential weak layers should be monitored in the days ahead as they may become important factors in promoting avalanche danger when future snow loading is received. &&