920 AM PST SUN FEB 03 2008...AMD && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES NORTH OF MT RAINIER- HIGH avalanche danger above 5 to 6000 feet and CONSIDERABLE below gradually decreasing Sunday through early Monday, becoming CONSIDERABLE below 7000 feet. Danger gradually increasing Monday afternoon and night and becoming HIGH above 6000 feet and CONSIDERABLE below. * WASHINGTON CASCADES FROM MT RAINIER SOUTHWARD, MT HOOD AREA- HIGH avalanche danger above 5000 feet and considerable below gradually decreasing Sunday through early Monday and becoming CONSIDERABLE below 7000 feet. Danger gradually increasing Monday afternoon and night and becoming HIGH above 6000 feet and CONSIDERABLE below. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS...AMD Following moderate to heavy snowfall and moderate winds in the south and generally light snowfall and light winds in the Olympics and north and central Washington Cascades on Saturday, snowfall and winds have decreased or are decreasing in all areas early Sunday, leaving behind some excellent and possibly relative stable near surface powder. Along with increasing snowpack settlement ranging from 6 to 16 inches since Friday, this weather has allowed for a slow and slight decrease from the recent and generally HIGH avalanche danger. However, considerable amounts of settling and still unstable slabs remain over a variety of buried weak layers that exist from 1 to over 6 feet below the snow surface. Due to generally colder temperatures and stronger winds at higher elevations, less settlement and the continuing potential for larger wind slabs are helping to maintain generally HIGH danger above 5 to 6000 feet, with considerable danger persisting on steeper wind loaded terrain at lower elevations. Although much of the wind transport during the past few days has accentuated the danger on northeast through southeast exposures, the most recent winds may have created new slabs on north and northwest facing slopes and back country travelers should be aware of the potential for some rather sensitive slabs on a variety of exposures. Also, Hurricane Ridge in Olympic National Park has reported some natural sluffs or slides of very low density new snow early Sunday. These mostly surface releases entrained considerable amounts of near surface snow and possibly triggered some soft slabs as well, with 12-20 feet of debris reported on the uphill side of the access road to Hurricane Ridge. Such surface slide activity of the recently received low density snow may become more widespread on sun affected terrain Sunday. Note that while much of the recently reported natural and controlled slide activity has involved only the most recently deposited new snow, the sustained and almost continuous heavy snowfall since last weekend has also loaded some more deeply buried weak layers of faceted snow, buried surface hoar or very low density snow that developed during the mostly clear and cold weather in mid-January. This snow structure has resulted in larger but more isolated slides reaching more deeply buried weak layers during the past 24-48 hours, and more are possible on Sunday. Please also note that the very large amounts of relatively low density snow have not only produced a significant avalanche danger, but have also made back country travel challenging and difficult. Foot penetration off the trail has diminished in the past 24- 36 hours, but was reported as reaching shoulders to head depth early Friday. Hence, suffocation continues to be a very real possibility from a fall, especially near tree wells and even within developed ski areas in more sparsely traveled terrain. As a result, back country travel in avalanche terrain is still not recommended at higher elevations and back country travelers should have probes, shovels, beacons and a very aware partner; watch each other and stay close together. For more information on suffocation in deep snow, please consult the web site at: www.treewelldeepsnowsafety.com. DETAILED FORECASTS SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT Generally decreasing showers should spread southward Sunday morning with flurries ending and some brief partial clearing expected Sunday afternoon and night. This should allow the recent heavy snowfall and substantial wind slabs to further settle and partly stabilize. However, human triggered slides should remain probable to likely in steeper avalanche terrain, especially on wind loaded slopes. Considerable caution is advised in route selection and terrain management with the expected danger levels, as the current snowpack should remain relatively unforgiving. Also, partial clearing and light winds should allow for increasing surface hoar formation in many areas overnight. MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT...AMD Increasing clouds with light snow showers Monday morning should be followed by occasional light snow Monday afternoon with increasing light to moderate snow and increasing winds overnight into early Tuesday. Along with slight warming late Monday, this weather should allow for a further slight decrease in the danger early Monday. However, the increasing snowfall combined with increasing winds and slow warming should allow new and more cohesive slabs to be deposited over existing low density near surface snow or surface hoar Monday night. With increasingly heavy loading expected to follow, this snowpack structure should become increasingly unstable early-mid Tuesday. &&