900 AM PST SAT FEB 16 2008 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES- MODERATE avalanche danger above 4000 feet and LOW below except for pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger above 5-6000 feet near ridges Saturday and Saturday night. Increasing avalanche danger Sunday becoming CONSIDERABLE below 7000 feet, with the greatest danger developing on steep southeast to southwest facing slopes during the warmest part of the day. Considerable avalanche danger continuing below 7000 feet Sunday night. * MT HOOD AREA- MODERATE avalanche danger above 5000 feet and LOW below except for pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger above 5-6000 feet near ridges Saturday and Saturday night. Increasing avalanche danger Sunday becoming CONSIDERABLE below 7000 feet, with the greatest danger developing on steep southeast to southwest facing slopes during the warmest part of the day. Considerable avalanche danger continuing below 7000 feet Sunday night. OUTLOOK MONDAY- Avalanche danger further increases Monday, especially during the late morning and afternoon remaining CONSIDERABLE below 7000 feet. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS Generally light amounts of new snow 1 to 3 inches and up to 6 inches were received late Friday and early Saturday at cooling temperatures in the Olympics and Washington Cascades with no new snow on Mt Hood. The most recent previous snow of 3 to 6 inches was received in most areas late Tuesday and early Wednesday, also at cooling temperatures. The recent snows have bonded well to a near surface crusts formed during recent mild weather and between light snowfall periods. One or more of the near surface crusts are currently bridging older wet snow layers or deep settled old snow below. At mid and lower elevations such as in the Snoqualmie Pass or Stevens Pass areas, some 12 to 18 inches of wet snow exist below the upper crusts. Higher elevations that failed to avalanche during the recent avalanche cycle a week ago may be primed to slide during the upcoming warm event as it should be the warmest weather seen this winter. Therefore, some deep wet snow avalanches are possible over the next few days and special caution is urged during this upcoming warm spell. The shallow new snow may have been transported to some lee slopes near ridges at higher elevations where some isolated wind slab layers may exist. Any shallow wind slab layers should likely be on mainly east to southeast facing slopes where caution is advised. DETAILED FORECASTS SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT Cool and mostly cloudy early Saturday with generally light northwest winds at crest level. This should allow for a further slow decrease in danger. The main danger should remain at higher elevations in the north and central Washington Cascades where slightly greater new snow was received. In those areas some pockets of wind deposited snow may exist near ridges on lee slopes where back country travelers should use caution. Decreasing clouds and gradual warming Saturday night with winds shifting to easterly should not change the danger appreciably. SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT Sunny with significant warming is expected Sunday with freezing levels rising above 10,000 feet for the first time this winter. This should allow for an increasing danger as surface snow becomes wet and weak. Wet loose or isolated wet slab releases should be possible Sunday on a variety of aspects, but especially sun exposed terrain. Also, a significant danger increase may be experienced above 7000 feet as significantly more recent snowfall may be available to become entrained in any avalanches. Climbers or other travelers venturing above 7000 feet should be extra cautious as some large and possibly destructive avalanches should be possible, especially during the warmest part of the day. Particular caution is urged on slopes below large cornices as and cornice failures are likely to trigger slides on slopes below. Also, be cautious of slopes below large rock outcroppings as the rocks may add extra thermal input to the snow and increase melt and weakening. Areas with a shallow snow pack may also be of concern as some possible full depth releases could be possible. Warm weather Sunday night should maintain wet and weak snow. OUTLOOK MONDAY Very warm again Monday and sunny. This should allow for further surface snow layers to become wet and available to slide. Triggered wet loose or wet slab avalanches should be probable on steep terrain with natural slides possible Monday. Extra caution is also advised on slopes below cornices as these may become weak and fail during the warm weather and trigger avalanches on slopes below. &&