8 AM PST SAT FEB 23 2008 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * WASHINGTON CASCADES, OLYMPICS, MT HOOD AREA- LOW avalanche danger below 7000 feet Saturday. Danger slightly increasing Saturday night and Sunday morning through mid-day, mainly on north, northwest and west exposures above 4 to 5000 feet. Avalanche danger decreasing later Sunday afternoon and night and becoming generally LOW below 7000 feet. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS Continued snowpack settlement, increasing surface crust formation, relatively cool daytime temperatures, and little or no recent snowfall have all combined to produce a mostly stable snowpack and generally LOW avalanche danger early Saturday. Field reports indicate small amounts of surface hoar or traces of new snow over an increasingly thick surface crust on most exposures, with the crust varying from semi-breakable to walkable to almost drivable in places. Several more buried crusts lie interspersed with multiple settling snow layers of 1-4f hardness within the upper 1 to 2 feet of the snowpack in most areas. While some minor faceting may be occurring near these buried crusts, such slow and limited weakening is not expected to be a significant factor in future avalanching, at least not currently. Also, while some relatively soft recycled powder may still exist on some higher elevation north exposures, this softer near surface snow is also quite stable. Of more immediate concern is the firm near surface crust and the potential for uncontrolled sliding on this smooth hard surface after a fall. Travelers are encouraged to use caution traversing steeper terrain with such a crust, especially on slopes above terrain traps such as cliffs, rocks or trees which would result in an unpleasant outcome if encountered following a long slide on this icy surface. While neither the crust or the spotty surface hoar pose a significant avalanche problem currently, the combination of such layering will become much more of a concern whenever future heavier snow loading returns to the Northwest. Currently, such loading is expected in California throughout the Sierra-Nevada Range, but longer range forecast models indicate that stronger westerly flow and associated heavier snowfall are not expected to grace most Northwest mountains until late next week, at the earliest. DETAILED FORECASTS SATURDAY Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered light showers early Saturday should give way to partly sunny skies mid-day and Saturday afternoon with widely scattered light showers. Along with relatively low freezing levels and relatively light but slightly increasing ridgetop winds this weather should not significantly affect the existing generally LOW avalanche danger. While the avalanche danger should remain LOW, back country travelers should exercise caution due to the strong icy crust in many areas, as serious injury can occur if falls on this surface carry an unwary traveler into or over terrain traps like cliffs, rocks or trees. Also, frozen debris from previous avalanching may pose additional challenges in many steeper slope run outs and some large cornices which developed during stormy weather in early-mid February and have not yet released should be avoided. SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT Increasing clouds and some light rain or snow should spread northward overnight and Sunday morning, along with gradually increasing ridgetop and pass winds. While any snowfall should be relatively light and accumulations minor, a slight increase in the danger is possible on north, northwest and west exposures where some very shallow wind slabs may develop above about 4 to 5000 feet, mainly in the south-central Washington Cascades and Mt Hood area. However, with gradually decreasing clouds, showers and winds expected Sunday afternoon and night, these shallow slabs should quickly settle and allow a return to generally LOW danger below 7000 feet by early Monday. &&