0800 AM PST Wednesday February 02, 2000

ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS.....

OLYMPICS . . .WASHINGTON CASCADES NORTH OF MT RAINIER . . .
High avalanche danger above 4 to 5000 feet and considerable below 
Wednesday, slowly decreasing late Wednesday. Avalanche danger 
further slowly decreasing Thursday becoming high above 6000 feet, 
considerable from 4 to 6000 feet and moderate below. 

WASHINGTON CASCADES FROM MT RAINIER SOUTHWARD. .MT HOOD AREA... 
High avalanche danger above 6000 feet, considerable danger from 4 
to 6000 feet and moderate below Wednesday, gradually decreasing. 
Avalanche danger further slowly decreasing Thursday becoming 
considerable above 5 to 6000 feet and moderate below.

SNOWPACK ANALYSIS.....
Heavy amounts of rain or wet heavy snow Tuesday was followed by 
cooler light amounts of lower density snow overnight Tuesday and 
early Wednesday. The rain/snow line reached to near 4000 feet in 
the north Washington Cascades and about 7000 feet over the Mt 
Hood area. The heavy loading or rain caused widespread natural 
avalanching helping to lessen the danger. The heavy wet snow or 
rain loaded the significant buried weak layers of surface hoar, 
low density snow or graupel that have been persistent in the 
upper 1 to 2 feet of the snowpack along the west slopes over the 
past two weeks. East of the crest, significant areas of surface 
hoar had formed over the past week along with buried weak layers 
of depth hoar or weak faceted snow above the new years crust. 
This may have caused some isolated releases to the ground.  
Additional loading of some 6 to 18 inches of snow accumulated 
with cooling temperatures and fell with strong winds late Tuesday 
and early Wednesday. This has built new areas of unstable wind 
slab onto lee slopes, especially at higher elevations where the 
greatest amount of precipitation fell as snow. The greatest 
danger is likely to exist on wind loaded northerly through 
easterly facing slopes. Also, a greater danger may persist on 
more shallow angled slopes that did not avalanche during the 
heavy rain or snow Tuesday. While the warming and rain may have 
eliminated much of the persistent buried surface hoar through 
natural avalanches Tuesday, a snowpit at Snoqualmie Pass early 
Wednesday still showed this weak layer buried about 1 foot below 
the surface.  Therefore, lower angled slopes that did not release 
naturally may still have a significant lingering instability due 
to this layer. Backcountry travelers should continue to use 
extreme caution as the new snow gradually settles and 
consolidates. 

WEDNESDAY . . .
Occasional light snow showers should gradually decrease Wednesday 
along with decreasing winds and further lowering freezing levels. 
This should allow for slowly decreasing avalanche danger as 
unstable wind slabs slowly stabilize at higher elevations and 
previously rain soaked snow begins re-freezing at lower 
elevations.

THURSDAY...
Becoming partly cloudy with light winds aloft, except for strong 
east winds through the lower Cascade passes, and rising freezing 
levels. The gradual warming Wednesday should help to settle and 
strengthen unstable wind slabs on previously loaded slopes at 
higher elevations while previously rain wetted snow at lower 
elevations re-freezes under clearing skies. This should lead to a 
further decreasing danger.