Colorado Avalanche Information Center

Public Forecast of Weather and Backcountry Avalanche Conditions

This is Scott in the Avalanche Center with current information on
mountain weather, snow, and avalanches conditions at 7 am, Saturday,
March 09, 2002.

DISCUSSION

Wow, High pressure returns today (though a bit dirty, clouds around
20,000 ft) after yesterdays whopper of a storm in the Central & S
mtns.  An avalanche warning will remain in place for today in the Elk
Range.  Cold air again returned to the mountains last night, but
should be short lived as winds back to a W to SW direction bringing
warmer desert air into the state. This warmer SW flow leads us into
the next storm system for Sunday Night. Expecting a lee trough to
develop on the plains east of the foothills on Sunday which will help
produce some strong winds along & east of the Divide.  Next storm for
Sunday night Monday will favor N&C mtns but so far not real
impressive.  The forecast details:

Northern Mountains

Saturday:  High thin clouds, Winds SW 10-20, Gs 30s & increase
overnight.  Highs 12-22. Lows 10-20.

Sunday: Part Cloudy.  Winds WSW 10-20, but stronger along divide.
Highs 20-30

Sunday Night:  Light snow developing. Winds NW 15-25, Gs 40s.  Lows
10-18

Central Mountains

Saturday:  Partly cloudy.  Winds SW 10-20, increase over night.  Highs
14-24, Lows 10-20.

Sunday: Partly cloudy.  Winds SW 10-20.  Highs 20-30

Sunday Night: Light snow develops.  Winds WNW 15-25.  Lows 12-20

Southern Mountains

Saturday:  Clear to partly cloudy.  Winds WSW 5-15.  Highs 18-28.
Lows 10-20

Sunday: Partly cloudy.  Winds SW 5-15, Gs 20s.  Highs 25-35

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy.  Winds NW 20-30, Gs 50s.  Lows 15-25

SNOWPACK

15 slides reported from the San Juans from yesterday, 2 ran naturally
off Snowden Peak, N aspect, the rest explosive triggered along the Hwy
550 corridor.  One slide reported from near Crested Butte, on
Snodgrass NE aspect, but poor visibility so little detail.  One hard
slab from Aspen Highlands from control work.  Storm totals of nearly 3
ft from Gothic area, 21" from McClure Pass, 15" from Aspen Highlands.
Expecting to hear of quite a bit of avalanche activity from the Elk
Range today.  With the weak underlying base conditions in the
backcountry danger will lessen slowly at best.  Best to stick to
conservative terrain the next few days.  With winds during the storm
beginning from the SW & ending from the NW & now backing around to the
west again a wide variety of aspects will have wind slab development,
so keep your eyes open for cross loaded terrain.  Reports from several
locations of wind slab development well below treeline.  Be careful
today

Today's backcountry avalanche danger ratings:

N&C mtns: overall MODERATE, with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on N-E-SE
aspects, all elevations.

Elk Mtns:  HIGH, all elevations & aspects.  Warning in place.

West San Juans: CON with pockets of HIGH on N-E-cross loaded SW
aspects

E San Juans locally around Wolf Creek Pass: the danger is overall MOD,
With CONSIDERABLE on N-E aspects..                

Toepfer