7:30 a.m., Sunday, December 1, 2002

   This is a U.S. 5 Scale Danger Rating avalanche bulletin for Tuckerman
   and Huntington Ravines. We will likely go back and forth between
   General Advisories and 5 scale ratings until we need to go to a daily
   bulletin. If a 5 scale bulletin is issued it expires at midnight on
   the day of issue and you can expect another bulletin the following
   morning. When a General Advisory is posted another bulletin may or may
   not be issued the following day depending on conditions. Climbers
   heading into Huntington should check the avalanche bulletin before
   leaving Pinkham Notch or Hermit Lake each morning. Until the Harvard
   Cabin opens on December 1st the avalanche bulletin will not be posted
   there due to no campers being there overnight.

   TUCKERMAN AND HUNTINGTON RAVINES CURRENTLY HAVE CONSIDERABLE AVALANCHE
   DANGER. Natural avalanches are POSSIBLE and human triggered avalanches
   are PROBABLE on steep snow covered open slopes and gullies. Be
   increasing cautious in steeper terrain. BE PREPARED FOR THE AVALANCHE
   DANGER TO BE MOVING FROM CONSIDERABLE TOWARD HIGH DEPENDING ON NEW
   PRECIPATATION TODAY AND CONSISTANT HIGH WINDS. SO EXPECT THE DANGER TO
   BE ON THE UPPER END OF THE CONSIDERABLE RATING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
   IN MANY LOCATIONS. In the past 24 hours the summit has received 4.9
   inches of new snow with water equivalent of .58 inches bringing the
   new snow density to 11.8%. More snow showers are forecasted through
   the day with lots of blowing snow. The summit temperatures should drop
   like a rock approaching -10 degrees F later in the day. So be prepared
   for full on arctic conditions. Weather may seem reasonable early, but
   be ready deteriorating conditions so get an early start if you plan to
   be out. Through yesterday and last night the average wind speed was
   only 32 mph which was a bit lighter, however similar, to the preceding
   2 days. This has been enough to load lee areas, but not quite enough
   to move all the snow above treeline down into lee locations. A wind
   advisory has been issued for the valleys today with 50+ mph gusts
   possible. Although forecasted NW winds moving toward 70+ mph are
   expected for the summits, higher speeds are likely. Wind should move
   snow that has been above treeline in protected areas and drifts that
   have not consolidated yet due to consistant cold temperatures. In
   addition, heavy riming should begin breaking free from physical
   features such as rocks and krumholz. Initially I expect newly
   deposited slab to be lighter in density than later in the day. As
   winds increase snow grain size will be smaller which will also mix
   with old rime particles. These should pack into a denser more cohesive
   slab. If winds stay high enough expect the probability of a heavier
   slab over ligher snow underneath making for an unstable inverted
   snowpack. Watch for new bulletins discussing any change in the daily
   rating. Remember if the snowfield is large enough to ski, climb, or
   recreate on it's large enough to avalanche.

   THE LION HEAD SUMMER TRAIL TRAVERSES NEAR TREELINE SHOULD BE WATCHED
   CLOSELY FOR AVALANCHE POTENTIAL. Each year the Lion head winter route
   is opened once the summer trail snowfields become large enough to
   become a consistant avalanche threat. We are getting close, but aren't
   quite at the point of switching yet. You need to be knowledgeble in
   stability assessment in addition to safe travel techniques to travel
   safely in this area. Have the avalanche gear, travel one at a time,
   don't travel over under or over one another, and have a plan in mind
   about what you will do if an avalanche occurs. Watch for the change of
   trail signs. The winter route leaves from the Huntington Fire road and
   has orange signs. The summer route has white signs and leaves the
   Tuckerman Ravine trail near Hermit Lake.

   Yesterday I headed back into the Bowl to investigate the scene of
   Friday's fatal avalanche in Tuckerman Ravine. I will discuss some of
   the mistakes made and lessons we can all learn from these tragic
   events over the next several days here in the Avalanche Advisory. The
   crown line was high in the "Lip" and was mostly filled in with new
   snow, but I estimate the fractine line to be approximately 140 ft
   across and 12 to 18 inches deep. It left a debris pile 400 ft long, 55
   ft wide, and up to 12 feet deep in isolated pockets. Once again my
   sincere thoughts go to the family and friends effected by this tragedy
   and thanks go to outstanding rescue efforts by those from volunteer
   Search and Rescue groups, namely AVSAR, MRS, and the AMC. New
   Hampshire Fish and Game and the U.S. Forest Service worked closely to
   resolve this potentially complex rescue involving 7 individuals.

   AS ALWAYS, THIS ADVISORY IS ONE MORE TOOL TO HELP YOU MAKE YOUR OWN
   DECISIONS IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN. It should be used along with your own
   snow stability assessments, knowledge of safe travel techniques, skill
   in mountain weather's effect on the snowpack, and avalanche rescue.

   Pull out your beacon, probe, and shovel and practice, pracTICE!,
   PRACTICE!!, PRACTICE!!! ONLY YOU CAN SAVE YOUR PARTNER!! Sign up for
   an avalanche course. We have all the avalanche courses offered in the
   valley this winter on our website, csac.org.

   PLEASE REMEMBER:

   o Any new precipitation may increase the avalanche danger, this
   includes wind transported snow.

   o Obtain latest weather forecast before starting out.

   o For more information, contact the U.S. Forest Service Snow Rangers:
   AMC at Pinkham Notch Visitor Center or Hermit Lake Shelters.

   o This avalanche bulletin will expire at midnight.

   Christopher Joosen, Snow Ranger
   USDA Forest Service
   White Mountain National Forest