Jan 13, 2006 Canadian Avalanche Centre PAF

South Rockies Region
Avalanche Forecast

Forecast Area: This forecast includes mountainous areas in the southeast corner 
of BC and the southwest corner of Alberta. It includes mountain areas in the Elk 
Valley between Fernie and Elkford, areas east of Canal Flats and Cranbrook, the 
Crowsnest Pass, and the east side of the Rocky Mountains south of Kananaskis 
Country. The region does not include Kananaskis Country or Kootenay and Waterton 
Lakes National Parks.

Forecast of avalanche danger beginning Friday, January 13, 2006:

Day:\Friday p.m.\Saturday\Sunday\Monday
Alpine:\High\High\Considerable\Considerable
Treeline:\High\High\Considerable\Considerable
Below Treeline:\Considerable\Considerable\Moderate\Moderate

Travel Advisory: The large avalanche cycle will continue until someone shuts the 
tap off. We hope to see an improvement in avalanche conditions once the snowfall 
stops and significant cooling occurs (later Saturday according to the forecast). 
Until this ongoing period of elevated avalanche danger passes, we recommend 
staying off of and well away from terrain steeper than about 30 degrees. 
Consider that some of the large avalanches reported went well down into their 
runout zones, so it~Rs best to steer clear of large avalanche paths.

Avalanches: Big avalanches were reported throughout the Fernie area up to Size 
3.5, triggered naturally and by explosives. Expect the mountains to continue 
rumbling with avalanches Friday and Saturday with continuing snowfall, and then 
let up slightly Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures and less snowfall.

Snowpack: Big snowfall continues to overload deeper weaknesses in the snowpack, 
ripping out large avalanches with fracturelines up to 1 to 4 m deep. Storm snow 
amounts range from 25 cm near Elkford up to 90 cm near Fernie. There are a 
number of shears at the interfaces of the layers in the storm snow. These layers 
are rapidly gaining strength at treeline and below; few reports from the alpine 
means I can~Rt say what~Rs happening to these layers higher up. Cooling 
temperatures this weekend will continue to help strengthen these layers. Deeper 
in the snowpack is the rain crust from the Christmas time period. At upper 
elevations the crust is either not present or not very thick and in its place or 
just under it is weak sugary faceted snow.

Weather: Heavy snowfall eased off slightly on Thursday allowing our observers to 
dig out and poke their heads out and look around the mountains. That was short 
lived as another heavy snowfall continues Friday and overnight. By Saturday 
there should be another 15-30 cm of snow on the ground. A few snow showers are 
expected Saturday and Sunday, with about 5 cm each day. After a possibe break in 
the sky and clear periods Sunday night, the next significant dump of snow is 
expected Monday night through Tuesday. The freezing level should rise to 1600 m 
Friday night, gradually dropping to 1300 m Saturday and to valley bottom Sunday.
Wind associated with the passing storms should reach 20-40 km from the 
southwest.

Issued by: aj
Canadian Avalanche Center