Mountain Weather and Avalanche Report



This is Dale at 8:15 on Saturday, January 17, 1998.

_SYNOPSIS_

Windy and snowy are the key words for the N&C mtns today. To the west
lots of moisture is racing toward CO this morning on strong W-NW flow.
The best snows will come this afternoon and tonight as deeper moisture
arrives and favors the N&C mtns. On Sunday afternoon expect snows to
decrease/end as weak high pressure moves over the mtns. Right on its
heals is the next system that will favor the S mtns later Monday as
the jet will be over S mtns. The forecast details:

_WEATHER_

_Saturday:_ N&C mtns...increasing clouds and light snows developing
this morning. Becoming moderate at times this afternoon, 3-6". S
mtns...increasing clouds, scattered snow showers, 0-2". Winds all
mountains W-NW/20-30 G70+, even stronger winds likely at mtn and
ridgetop levels. Generally light winds from mid-mtn and lower, except
along E side of Front Range where strong winds expected in valleys.
Highs all mountains 21-31.

_Saturday night:_ N&C mtns...light to moderate snow early, decreasing
after midnight, 3-6" add, locally upwards of 10" along the Continental
Divide. S mtns...mostly cloudy, snow showers, T-3" add. Winds NW/20-30
G60s. Lows teens.

_Sunday:_ N&C mtns...cloudy early, light snow, becoming partly cloudy
in afternoon with lingering snow showers at mtn top levels, 1-4" add.
S mtns...partly cloudy, lingering snow showers possible in N San
Juans, 0-1" add. Winds N mtns...NW-W/15-25 G45; C&S mtns NW-W/10-20
G30s. Highs all mtns...22-32.

_SNOWPACK_

An [1]Avalanche Warning remains in effect for the N&C mtns today.
Strong winds, more snow and expected higher snowfall instensity rates
means more natural releases later today and tonight. The backcountry
avalanche danger in the N&C mtns is rated an overall [2]HIGH, all
aspects & elevations; both natural and triggered avalanches are
likely. On Friday 70 avalanches reported from the N&C mtns. Soft slab
and hard slab releases are occurring both above and below treeline and
from all aspects, though NE-SE to S are more active. One fracture line
near Marble was over a mile across. Fracture lines of most all
avalanches have not been very deep, generally 2-4 feet, and are
failing in the mid pack, likely surface hoar and/or a mid-pack layer
of facets (sugar snow) that formed in late December/early January.
Expect to see deeper releases to the ground with another inch of water
equivalency overnight. Backcountry travel in the N&C mtns should be
confined to low angle slopes and away from avalanche runnout zones. In
the San Juans the backcountry avalanche danger is generally rated an
overall [3]MODERATE with areas of [4]CONSIDERABLE on SE-SW aspects,
especially in the West San Juans. Triggered releases by backcountry
travellers are possible to even probable on the steeper wind-drifted
lee slopes and gullies.

The snow conditions we've reported are based on observations and field
data. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different
conditions in the back-country and should travel accordingly.

We will update this message on Sunday morning....

Atkins