Mountain Weather and Avalanche Report



This is Dale at 8:10 on Sunday, March 8, 1998.

_SYNOPSIS_

Lots of sunshine in the high country this morning as a ridge of high
pressure passes over the mountains. NW flow aloft also means
temperatures will stay cold, more January-like than we typically (or
like) enjoy in March. This afternoon look for increasing high clouds
as a weak storm system now in ID and NV is expected to slide across CO
on Monday. This weak system will bring some light snows to the N&C
mtns of CO into Tuesday. The forecast details:

_WEATHER_

_Sunday: _all mtns...sunny skies early, increasing high clouds this
afternoon. Winds all mtns...NW-W/5-15, G25 above treeline. Highs all
mtns...8-18.

_Sunday night:_ N&C mtns...partly cloudy, widely scattered snow
showers, 0-2". S mtns...partly cloudy. Winds all mtns...NW/10-20 G30.
Lows 5 to -5.

_Monday:_ N&C mtns...mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers, 0-2". S
mtns...partly cloudy, few flurries possible in NW San Juans. Winds all
mtns...NW/10-20 G30s. Highs 8-18.

_SNOWPACK_

An [1]AVALANCHE WARNING remains in effect for the west San Juan
Mountains...mountain areas west of a line from Pagosa Springs through
Lake City. Strong winds and in places (Molas, Coal Bank Passes, Red
Mountain passes) more than 2 feet of snow fell in this area producing
lots of large avalanches from all aspects and elevations, especially
in the Red Mountain Pass and Silverton areas. Observers report most of
the activity has been on the E-S-SW aspects, but avalanches have
occurred on other aspects. If you will be driving US 550 you will see
some impressive cuts through avalanche debris triggered from CDOT
avalanche control teams. The avalanches have all started in the new
snow, but in some paths they have stepped-down or stripped down into
older snow layers once the avalanche was under way. Fracture lines
have typically been in the 4- to 6-foot range.

The backcountry danger in the west San Juans is rated at an overall
[2]HIGH, the threat of natural releases is easing but triggered
releases are likely. Backcountry travellers should avoid slopes 30
degrees and steeper and should limit activities to gentle terrain.

In the east San Juans the backcountry danger is an overall
[3]CONSIDERABLE. Wolf Creek Pass also got more than 2 feet of snow
during the storm, but this new snow fell on a generally stronger snow
cover. In the C mtns locally around Monarch Pass the backcountry
danger is also rated an overall [4]CONSIDERABLE. Triggered releases
are probable and backcountry travellers in the east San Juans and
Monarch Pass area would be wise to avoid steep slopes and gullies.

In the rest of the C&N mtns where less snow fell during the storm the
backcountry avalanche danger is rated [5]MODERATE below treeline;
triggered releases by backcountry travellers are possible; however,
near and above treeline the danger is rated [6]CONSIDERABLE on slopes
and gullies steeper than 30 degrees, especially those areas facing
N-E-S.

Observers from most mountain areas report the instability problem has
been caused by poor bonding of the new and old snow layers, however,
deep instabilities caused by depth hoar and other buried sugar-snow
layers exists, so backcountry travellers should also watch out for
triggering an avalanche from the less-steep terrain near the bottom of
steep slopes. If your heading into the backcountry extra caution is
need in all mountain areas.

The snow conditions we've reported are based on observations and field
data. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different
conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly.

We will update this forecast Monday morning.

Atkins