Colorado Avalanche Information Center

Public Forecast of Weather and Backcountry Avalanche Conditions

This is Scott at the CAIC with current information on mountain
weather, snow, and avalanche conditions recorded at 7 AM, Sunday,
April 19, 1998.

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SYNOPSIS

We are seeing some strong WNW winds along the Continental Divide in
the N mtns this AM. These should begin to taper off about 9AM as the
culprit, a low pressure center over the Dakotas, continues to migrate
E. The next weakening system over the Pacific coast at this time has
been beaten up by the dome of high pressure over CA. Warm air aloft &
weakening orographics will cause a more stable atmosphere to build in
and allow me to lower precip potential from 0-3" down to 0-2" today.
Most areas will see an increase in high to mid level clouds as this
next system and the tail end of an Artic cold front move through the
mtns this afternoon and tonite. San Juans should be spared the brunt
of this with a lesser chance of afternoon shower activity. Sunday nite
looks to fair less likely for precip as well. NW winds and some
moisture will keep mainly the N mtns unsettled into Monday though.
Looks like high pressure is finally beginning to get a hold of us. The
forecast details:

WEATHER

Sunday: N&C mtns...Partly cloudy early with increase overcast by
afternoon, scattered snow showers developing, 0-2". S mtns...party
cloudy, widely scattered afternoon snow showers. Winds all mtns
decreasing by noon...WNW/ 5-15, G 30. Highs all mtns...20s.

Sunday nite: Scattered Snow showers N&C mtns & N side SJs Tr-3".
Partly Cloudy S side SJs. Winds NW N&C mtns 5-15, Gs 30s. S mtns WNW
5-15. Low temps 8-18.

Mon: Lingering snow showers N mtns, 0-2". Partly to Mostly cloudy C&S
mtns. Winds WNW to NW 5-15. High temps 20-30 N&C mtns, S mtns 28-38.

Monnite: N mtns, few lingering showers along the high peaks, C&S mtns
Partly Cloudy. Winds NNE to NE 5-15. Low temps 8-18.

SNOWPACK

Due to new snow will go to MODERATE over all in N&C mtns for shallow
soft-slab releases. For the most part the chance for triggered slabs
will be on East facing slopes. S mtns LOW below TL, MOD nr & above TL.
Much less snow along the CD where the stronger winds were generally
found, although the 10 Mile & Elk ranges have seen averages in the
high 20s last 6+ hours. That is enuf to move the new snow in the 10
Mile & Elk ranges into lee starting zones and keep human triggered
slabs possible, all elevations. Should moderate below TL rather
quickly, & will likely drop to LOW below TL by tommorrow if next storm
does indeed fizzle out.

The snow conditions weve reported are based on observations and field
data. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different
conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly.

We will update this forecast Monday morning ... toepfer