SOUTH COAST & VANCOUVER ISLAND REGION WEATHER: Not much happening except cold and calm over the last few days. Temperatures ranged from -12 to -20 through the region with no significant precipitation occurring and generally light winds. The winds of change are starting to blow on Thursday though, and it looks like salvation from the cold is on the way! The upper level flow is forecast to again become westerly, bringing a series of systems onshore. Heavy precipitation and warmer temperatures are forecast for most of the region with Vancouver Island looking to get the brunt of it. SNOWPACK: Recent weather conditions have produced a variety of surface conditions, all of which point to trouble once they're buried. A strong temperature gradient in the upper layers of the snowpack has promoted facetting, which in many places has occurred next to a melt freeze crust. Surface hoar has also grown in sheltered areas and in some places is already buried by a thin layer of new snow, and windslabs persist in higher elevation wind effected areas. Underneath all of this a well consolidated snowpack exists with no significant instabilities. AVALANCHES: Isolated windslabs were triggered earlier, otherwise no significant activity has occurred. DANGER: Above Treeline - MODERATE (deteriorating rapidly with additional snow) Below Treeline - LOW (deteriorating with additional snow) TRAVEL ADVISORY: When moist Pacific air meets cold Arctic air, the conditions for very heavy snowfalls exist. Backcountry travelers should watch the weather conditions carefully over the next several days and remember the unstable layers which lurk near the surface of the snowpack. The potential for rapid warming and loading exists, which will quickly increase the avalanche danger. NORTH COLUMBIA REGION WEATHER: A northern flow of Arctic air maintained cold temperatures, light winds and no new snow over the last few days. Temperatures ranged from -20 to -30. On Thursday a westerly flow of warmer, moist air will begin to move across southern BC. Wherever this airmass meets the colder arctic air we can expect to see heavy snowfalls. Forecasts are calling for snow to fall across the North Columbia region beginning Thursday; temperatures may moderate a bit but should still remain generally cold. SNOWPACK: Cold air, clear skies and strong temperature gradients have produced a surface layer made up predominantly of facets and surface hoar. Windslabs can be found in exposed areas at treeline and above, but these appear to be well bonded for now. The weaker snow in the surface layer holds a variety of instabilities which will become important as additional load is placed on the snowpack. No significant instabilities exist below the top meter of the snowpack. AVALANCHES: No new avalanches have been reported. DANGER: Above Treeline - MODERATE Below Treeline - LOW TRAVEL ADVISORY: The first really significant instability of the season has now formed on the surface of the snow. Forecast snowfalls will soon bury this and with enough load on top we should begin to see avalanches occurring. Remember that wind will greatly increase the depth of new snow through windloading, so be very cautious as this instability is buried and expect it to avalanche without much additional load. SOUTH COLUMBIA REGION WEATHER: The cold influence of arctic air continued to be felt through this region over the past several days. Temperatures ranged from -20 to -30, little fell in the way of new snow and the winds were generally light. However, a westerly flow of moist air is again establishing itself over southern BC, and this is forecast to bring significant snowfalls to the region beginning late on Thursday. This weather pattern should also bring warmer temperatures. SNOWPACK: The first significant, widespread instability of the season has formed on the surface of the snowpack. A strong temperature gradient has promoted facetting within the surface layers, and surface hoar has been growing in sheltered areas. The snowpack is presently quite stable, having a well consolidated base with little in the way of buried instabilities. Expect this to change with additional snowfall, as the initial bond to the current snow surface will be poor. AVALANCHES: Loose, point release avalanches have been observed. DANGER: Above Treeline - MODERATE (deteriorating rapidly with additional snowfall) Below Treeline - LOW (deteriorating with additional snowfall) TRAVEL ADVISORY: So far this season, the majority of this region has seen a very stable snowpack with instabilities existing only within the new snow - this type of problem typically disappears rapidly. If the forecast snowfall for the next few days holds true, then it's time to put on your thinking cap. Instabilities such as facets and surface hoar are much slower to disappear and can be expected to linger and cause problems for a while. Treat this type of instability with respect well after a storm has ended. ROCKIES REGION WEATHER: The big chill continues with temperatures over the last few days ranging from -25 to -40 (yikes!). Not much happens during these temperatures - the wind has generally been calm and no precipitation has fallen. On Thursday a westerly flow moves onto the coast, and wherever it meets the arctic air we can expect snowfalls. This will likely occur mainly to the west of the Rockies, but some snow is forecast for the western parts of the range. Temperatures may moderate a bit but will generally remain cold. SNOWPACK: A strong temperature gradient is the dominant feature within the snowpack this week. Facetting is occurring within the surface layers of the snow, and some areas are reporting the formation of depth hoar on the ground layers. Surface hoar has also been growing in sheltered areas at and below treeline. The extremely wind effected snow at higher elevations has not changed much, and the windslabs associated with this appear to be bonding for now. Expect this cold air to slowly weaken the snowpack over time as well as create unstable surface layers which will bond poorly to future snowfalls. AVALANCHES: No new avalanches have been reported. DANGER: Above Treeline - MODERATE Below Treeline - LOW TRAVEL ADVISORY: Although not much snow is currently forecast for this region, the weather picture is rather complicated right now and has the potential to be off a bit. It won't take much new snow combined with wind to make windslabs which will bond poorly to the present surface. Pay close attention to any changes you observe over the next while.