Colorado Avalanche Information Center

Public Forecast of Weather and Backcountry Avalanche Conditions

This is Scott at the CAIC with current information on mountain
weather, snow, and avalanche conditions recorded at 7 am, Saturday,
January 30, 1999.

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure center over the Texas Panhandle is pushing some high
clouds into the mountains this morning. As that system tracks East a
more zonal flow pattern will develop by Sunday over CO with the jet
stream and storm track well S of us with activity well to our North as
well. We will see an increase in high & mid level clouds Sunday aftn &
into Sunday nite but at this time it will be hard to persuade any
precip, but stay tuned. The forecast details:

WEATHER

Saturday & nite: all mtns...clear with some high clouds. Winds...W to
SW/5-15. Highs...20s. Lows 5-15.

Sunday: all mtns...sunny early, increasing afternoon high clouds.
Winds W-SW/10-20 G30s. Highs 20s.

Sunday nite: Cloudy, possible shower, 0-1". Winds W-NW 5-15, Gs 20s.
Low T 10-15

SNOWPACK

Mild conditions allowing for continued settlement and strength in the
surface layers for all mtn areas, I dont expect any natural activity,
though triggered releases are possible to still probable on steep
windloaded slopes, especially those facing N-E. Ill rate the
backcountry avalanche danger for the N&C mtns at an overall MODERATE
with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on N-E aspects, 35 degrees and steeper.
In the S mtns the danger is an overall MODERATE. Expect the danger to
continue to ease this weekend due to the mild conditions. Limited
explosive control work in Summit County area yesterday with slabs
pulling to Ground, on gullies cross loaded from SW winds early this
week. Paths that were bare before the last storm cycle though have a
fairly strong profile with only wind compacted slab, no real
weaknesses. Snow Pits in the 10 mile range yesterday on a slope that
slid back on the 12th (ESE aspect, 12,200) had just less than a meter
of snow, RB score of 3 in the top 4", 7 otherwise. BC observers
reporting recent activity on E aspects in Penn & Indiana Gulch in
Summit County below TL, steep slopes, none to Ground. Crowns about 2
deep. Be aware that there are weaknesses in the lower snowpack that
may be triggered by a backcountry user. The snowpack has been
stabilizing with the recent fair weather, but an inherent problem with
a continental climate snowpack is the weak foundation that may be
bridged with stronger snow but mine fields still exist so safe travel
habits still need to be observed.

We will update this forecast on Sunday morning.... toepfer



As always, the snow conditions weve reported are based on observations
and field data. Use this information for guidance only. You may find
different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly.