ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS..... OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST NORTH OF STEVENS PASS Considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below Sunday morning, mainly Olympics and volcanic peaks of the north Cascades. Avalanche danger decreasing and becoming considerable above 6000 feet and moderate below later Sunday and Monday. Avalanche danger increasing Monday evening, becoming considerable above 5000 feet and moderate below. WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST STEVENS PASS SOUTH, MT HOOD Moderate avalanche danger below 7000 feet Sunday and Monday, slightly decreasing. Avalanche danger increasing Monday evening, becoming considerable above 5000 feet and moderate below. WASHINGTON CASCADES EAST OF THE CREST Moderate avalanche danger above 5000 feet and low below Sunday and Monday, slightly decreasing. Avalanche danger increasing Monday night, becoming considerable above 6000 feet and moderate below. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS..... In most areas little new snow has fallen the past 3 days. Along with mild temperatures this has caused the snowpack to settle from several inches to over a foot at some sites. The settlement and consolidation has helped to stabilize the heavy snowfall and weak layers that were created during the past couple weeks of stormy weather. Some warming on Saturday afternoon, followed by some cooling on Saturday night also helped form a surface crust in many areas. A snow pit at Stevens Pass on Saturday also found that the recent heavy snow had settled and densified, with a moderate shear at about 2 feet, and some crusts closer to a foot possibly providing some shears on steeper slopes. Snow pits at Blewett Pass on Saturday found generally settled, stable snow near pass level, with a one jump Rutschblock release at about 1 foot. Some evidence of wind action was noted at Blewett Pass however at higher elevations. Back country travelers should use some caution near the large cornices that have been building during the recent storm cycles. Some well developed surface hoar frost was also noted on Sunday morning. Two significant variations on the stabilizing trends are noteworthy. In the Olympics, and over the volcanic peaks of the north Cascades north of about Stevens Pass, about 2 feet of snowfall has been seen the past 3 days. Along with some very strong south winds, this is likely to have created some wind slab on northwest to northeast exposures at higher elevations in those areas. Unstable wind slab layers are still probable on these slopes in the Olympics and on some lee aspects of the north Cascade volcanoes. The second noteworthy variation is that in much of the rest of the Washington Cascades, east winds transported significant amounts of the recent snow to west aspects near ridge crests on Thursday and Friday. This allowed some unstable wind slab to form on more westerly aspects. A group of skiers triggered a 3-4 foot wind slab on a southwest aspect near the summit of Mt Snoqualmie on Friday, with the avalanche catching 2 skiers and partly burying one. Sunday..... Partly cloudy conditions are expected Sunday morning, with a few snow flurries possible over the Olympics and north Cascades. This should be followed by some partial clearing Sunday afternoon and night, all with fairly low freezing levels. This should generally cause further consolidation and stabilizing of recent heavy snowfall. Back country travelers should at least briefly check for possible older slab layers that may linger from the recent storm cycles on steep north to east lee aspects at higher elevations. Extra caution should more certainly be used on westerly aspects showing signs of wind transported snow, or on lee slopes in the Olympics and the volcanic peaks of the north Cascades. Monday..... Increasing clouds are expected Monday in advance of a series of fronts approaching the coast. This should initially cause little change in snow pack conditions. Increasing rain or snow and warming is expected Monday evening. Increasing instability should develop as the new snow accumulates, especially at higher elevations where increasing winds help create slab layers, or where the new snow accumulates on surface hoar frost seen on Sunday morning. These trends should continue with increasing winds and increasing snowfall expected on Monday night and Tuesday. Further development of unstable wind slab layers are likely Monday night, with triggered avalanches probable and possible natural avalanches on Monday night and Tuesday, especially on lee slopes at higher elevations in the Olympics and near the Cascade crest.