Public Forecast of Weather and Backcountry Avalanche Conditions

This is Dale at the CAIC with current information on mountain weather,
snow, and avalanche conditions updated at 1:40 pm, Tuesday, December
14, 1999. Reason: updated danger rating for the Park Range around
Steamboat Springs.

DISCUSSION
Early snowfall reports this morning are a mixed lot. Localized
convection last night favored some sites but not all. The haves were
Red Mtn Pass, Monarch & Beaver Creek, 5"; Aspen, 6"; Snowmass, 7"; and
Telluride, 8"; also snow water equivalents from the Flattops show up
to 1" of water, (about 12" of snow). Steamboat ski area had 18 inches
of snow (0.9" of water). Buffalo Pass ENE of Steamboat reported 1.1"
of water equivalent. The have nots were Silverton, 1.5"; Summit Cty,
Winter Park, and McClure Pass, 2-3 inches new. This morning lingering
moisture will fuel clouds and morning snow showers in the brisk and
very cold NW flow for all mountains, but expect drying and clearing
over the C&S mtns as weak high pressure starts to build. NW flow will
remain brisk for the next several days keeping the mountain and
ridgetops windy, but expect little wind well below treeline. The
forecast details:

WEATHER
Tuesday: N mtns: mostly cloudy to cloudy, light snow, T-2" additional.
C&S mtns: mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers early, 0-1", becoming
partly cloudy by late morning to afternoon. Ridge top winds in the N
mtns: NW/20-30 G45; C&S mtns: NW/15-25 G40. Highs all mtns 2 to +8.
Tuesday night: N mtns: mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers, 0-2".
C&S mtns: partly cloudy to mostly clear. Few showers possible from
Aspen to Leadville and Northward. Winds all mtns NW/15-25 G45. Lows 10
to 0, but colder in the valleys.
Wednesday: N mtns: mostly cloudy, snow showers becoming more
widespread in the afternoon, T-2". C&S mtns: mostly clear early with
increasing clouds, widely scattered snow showers, from Aspen to
Leadville and northward. Chance for showers to the south. Ridge top
winds generally NW/15-25 G45, though stronger winds expected over the
Front and Ten Mile Ranges. Highs all mtns, 10 to 20.

SNOWPACK

The mixed snowfall amounts makes it difficult to give widespread
backcountry avalanche danger ratings, but be alert for very tender
pockets of new soft slab that formed in any wind-affected area. The
most suspect areas are those that received about 6+ inches of new snow
with some wind; triggered releases by backcountry travelers on steep
N-SE aspects are possible to probable. As the clouds lift you might
also see a few naturals, too.

The backcountry avalanche danger:

N & C Mtns: overall LOW, but near and above treeline on N-SE aspects
MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on slopes and gullies steeper
than 30 degrees. Locally in the Park Range around Steamboat the
backcountry danger extends below treeline, too. In the S Mtns: overall
LOW, but locally in the Telluride and north side of Red Mtn Pass areas
the danger on N-SE aspects near and above treeline is MODERATE with
pockets of CONSIDERABLE steeper than 30 degrees. In the S Sangres and
Spanish Peaks areas, MODERATE.

Be alert for shooting cracks from under foot, "whumpfing" and hollow
drum-like sounds. These are clues to dangerous conditions, and are
natures way of saying stick to the less-steep terrain.

As always, the snow conditions weve reported are based on observations
and field data. Use this information for guidance only. You may find
different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly.

We will update this forecast on Wednesday morning.

Atkins