Colorado Avalanche Information Center

Public Forecast of Weather and Backcountry Avalanche Conditions

This is Scott at the CAIC with current information on mountain
weather, snow, and avalanche conditions recorded at 7;15 am,
Wednesday, December 15, 1999.

DISCUSSION

Looks like we have our first avalanche fatality of the year, up on
Cameron Pass. Not a good start as this is the first incident and only
about the 15th slide reported this season. Search for the victim
continues this morning after search was called off due to high winds,
sub zero wind chill temps, and darkness yesterday. More details below.
Winds along the divide continue to race along this morning. Wind
chills in N mtns so far ranging from 40 to 50. Winds will remain
strong near and above treeline today especially along the Front
Range/Continental Divide, 10 Mile, Gore Ranges. Temps a degree or two
warmer than yesterday, and with NW flow, lite snow showers in the N
mtns, stretching into Leadville, Aspen areas on the high peaks. Warm
air advection spells the ruin of major precip with this next wave. The
forecast details:

WEATHER

Wednesday: N mtns: mostly cloudy, snow showers becoming more
widespread in the afternoon, T-2". C&S mtns: mostly clear early with
increasing clouds, widely scattered snow showers, from Aspen to
Leadville and northward. Chance for showers to the south. Ridge top
winds generally NW/ 20-30, G near 60in N mtns, slower to the South.
Highs all mtns, 10 to 20.

Wednesday Nite: N mtns Tr-3", C&S mtns 0-2". Winds N mtns WNW/20-30,
Gs 50-60. C& S mtns WNW 15-25, G 40s above TL. Lows 10-15, Colder
valley floors.

Thursday: Tr-2" N mtns. C&S mtns 0-2". Wind N mtns WNW 15-25, G 30-40.
C&S mtns NW 10-20, G 30-40. Highs 18-28.

Thurnite: N mtns Tr-3", C&S mtns 0-2". Winds N&C mtns NW 20-30, G
50-60. N 15-25, G 40 in S mtns. Lows 10-15.

SNOWPACK

Strong winds are moving considerable amounts of snow, and with low
density snows & depth hoar the main ingredients of our snow pack
expect to find that snow on lee slopes today. Even though the snowpack
is generally shallow Trouble is still easy to find.

Expect that strong winds and wind transported snow last 24 to 36 hours
have not allowed for any easing of the avalanche hazard, especially in
the N mtns. Strong winds last 12 24 hours will force me to upgrade
danger in N mtns. Yesterdays accident: Elevation about 11,500 to
11,200on Diamond Peak, (Clark Peak Topo) NE to ENE aspect, fracture
about 2 feet deep, 50-75 yards wide, 100 yards long, male, possible
cornice failure above victim triggered slide, no beacons.

N & C Mtns: overall LOW below Treeline, but MODERATE with pockets of
HIGH near and above treeline on N-SE aspects steeper than 30 degrees.

S Mtns: overall LOW, but locally in the Telluride and north side of
Red Mtn Pass MODERATE near and above treeline on N-SE aspects steeper
than 30 degrees. In the S Sangres and Spanish Peaks areas, MODERATE .

Toepfer

As always, the snow conditions weve reported are based on observations
and field data. Use this information for guidance only. You may find
different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly.

We will update this forecast on Thursday morning. Thanks for calling
the Avalanche Center. toepfer