Colorado Avalanche Information Center

Public Forecast of Weather and Backcountry Avalanche Conditions

This is Scott at the CAIC with current information on mountain
weather, snow, and avalanche conditions recorded at 7 am, Sunday,
January 30, 2000.

DISCUSSION

High clouds are drifting across North AZ this morning and San Juans
will see some high clouds develop as they move East. Cold air mass and
weak high pressure will moderate only slightly today, temps only a
couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Currently in the -20s in
South Park/Fairplay area. Seeing some strengthening in winds in
isolated areas, (10 Mile, Cont Divide). For Monday a fast moving storm
will plow into the West San Juans, good moisture, good strength, fair
orographics, begins near sunrise. By Monday nite winds have veered to
NE favoring N side of Red Mtn Pass. Could see some big snows rapidly
for the San Juans. Expect Hazard to rise. The forecast details:

WEATHER

N Mtns

Sun:
Clear. Winds NW early, backing SW aftn 10-20, G30s. Highs 5-15 

Sunnite:
Increasing Clouds. Winds SW 10-20. Lows 15-22. 

Mon:
Mostly cloudy, 0-1". Winds SW early, N by evening, 5-15. Highs 18-25 

Monnite:
Mostly cloudy, 0-1". Winds N 5-15. Lows 15-22 

C Mtns

Sun:
Clear, Winds W to aftn SW 5-15. Highs 14-24. 

Sunnite:
Cloudy, Winds SW 10-20. Lows 18-24 

Mon:
Cloudy, 0-1", West Elks/Grand Mesa 3-6". Winds SW early, NW aftn 5-15.
Highs 15-22 

Monnite:
Mostly cloudy, 0-1". Winds N 5-15. Lows 15-20 

S Mtns

Sun:
Clear, some aftn high clouds, Winds SW 5-15. Highs 15-25 

Sunnite:
Overcast, 0-2" by sunrise. Winds SW 15-25, G 30s. Lows 18-24 

Mon:
8-12", Winds SW 10-20, Gs 30s. Highs 18-28. 

Monnite:
Mostly cloudy, N side RMP 3-6". Winds NE 10-20. Lows 15-22 

SNOWPACK

Have seen some moderate winds in the Summit County area last 12-24
hours that have likely added fresh shallow slab onto NE-SE aspects
above TL. Cold temps have also maintained a brittle slab. Observers in
San Juans still reporting a reactive snowpack with Significant
collapsing in T-ride area, slides to ground below TL. Reutsch block
scores of 4 on most all aspects & elevations around Red Mtn Pass.
Failures at the ground & about 25 cm deep. Forecasted new snows could
easily bring the San Juans to Warning criteria. Will need to watch
this storm closely

N Mtns
: Below TL,CONSIDERABLE. Near and above TL, CONSIDERABLE with pockets
of HIGH along E side of Tenmile & Gore Range + Cont Divide N mtns due
to stronger winds above TL. 

C Mtns and W San Juans:
Over all CONSIDERABLE with some pockets of High in the T-ride area all
elevations. Mainly NW-E aspects. 

E San Juans:
MODERATE, with pockets of CONS on NW-NE steep aspects.

We will update this forecast on Monday morning...

As always, the snow conditions we've reported are based on
observations and field data. Use this information for guidance only.
You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel
accordingly. toepfer