2 PM PST Sunday 16 January 2000 ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS..... WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST. . . . . . . .AVALANCHE WARNING. . . . . Avalanche danger increasing and becoming high above 4000 feet and considerable below on Sunday afternoon and evening. Avalanche danger decreasing and becoming high above 5-6000 feet and considerable below Monday. MT HOOD. . . . . . . .AVALANCHE WARNING. . . . . Avalanche danger increasing and becoming high above 5000 feet and considerable below on Sunday afternoon and evening. Avalanche danger decreasing and becoming high above 6000 feet and considerable below Monday. WASHINGTON CASCADES EAST OF THE CREST. . . Avalanche danger increasing and becoming high above 5000 feet and considerable below on Sunday afternoon and evening. Avalanche danger decreasing and becoming considerable above 5000 feet and moderate below Monday. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS.... A mostly dry day was seen on Saturday, but this followed a week nearly continuous storms cycles and heavy snowfall. Snowfall totals for the past week range from about 5 to 9 feet at Hurricane Ridge and at sites near and west of the Cascade crest. The strongest recent winds were last weekend when sustained winds of over a hundred mph were seen or measured at Stevens Pass, White Pass, and Timberline. A snowboarder was caught in an avalanche last weekend at Hurricane Ridge and was buried except fortunately for his hand. Further loading of wind crusts by mid week appears to have helped bring some very large natural slab avalanches to remote locations on the volcanic peaks, with a 20 foot crown seen on Mt Hood which probably released Wednesday. A moderate number of skier triggered slab releases have also been seen through the week near ski areas. These slab avalanches have ranged from 6 to 30 inches and have generally been restricted to new snow layers. A snowpit and Rutschblock test in the Alpental backcountry mid week also found that the main instability was restricted to new snow layers. The heavy snowfall during the week has been generally of low density, also causing deep but fairly stable snow at lower elevations and in sheltered areas. A weaker underlying snowpack is being reported along the Cascade east slopes. Buried surface hoar or faceted crystals on the December crust continue to poorly support more recent snow layers. These layers would not support a skier in a Rutscblock test on Saturday at Blewett Pass. Sensitive slab avalanches of up to 2 feet have also been seen by ski patrollers at Mission Ridge late last week. This would indicate that some areas of snow east of the crest will not be stable to skiers, snowmobilers or new heavy snow accumulations. Sunday..... Increasing snow at slightly rising temperatures is expected Sunday. Strong east or southeast winds Sunday midday should become southwest of west Sunday afternoon and evening. The shifting winds and changing snow conditions should build some new unstable, denser windslab layers at moderate and higher elevations by Sunday afternoon and evening. This should initially occur on northwest or west exposures and shift to northeast and east exposures at higher elevations. Underlying lower density snow may poorly support newer, higher density layers. Greater than usual snow and instability is possible east of the Cascade crest by Sunday afternoon. Backcountry travel at higher elevations is not recommended Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday..... Snow showers should decrease at cooler temperatures on Monday. This should bring a gradually decreasing avalanche danger as snow layers consolidate and partly stabilize. At higher elevations, unstable windslab layers should remain likely on some previous lee aspects. At moderate and lower elevations, less consolidated snow is expected, but backcountry travelers should continue to be cautious near avalanche terrain, where triggered slab avalanches should remain probable. Periodic snow stability evaluation by backcountry travelers should be a good idea on Monday.