Colorado Avalanche Information Center -- Boulder

Public Forecast of Mountain Weather and Backcountry Avalanche
Conditions

This is Scott at the Colorado Avalanche Information Center with
current information on mountain weather, snow and avalanche conditions
at 7:10 am, Saturday, March 17, 2001.

DISCUSSION

Our low pressure center is over the 4 corners area and slowly drifting
SE this morning.  High pressure will be building in behind this by
this afternoon, although we have a weak wave out of the NW for our N
mtns on Sunday.  Most sights still reporting lite snow this morning,
and there is still lite to moderate snow along the foothills which
should also taper off today. Snowfall amounts this morning have: 8" in
Silverton, Molas & Coal Bank 9", 15" at Wolf Creek Pass, 4" at Lake
City, 2" in Ashcroft, Abasin & Mary Jane, 3" at Beaver Creek & the top
of Breckenridge, 7.5" at Crested Butte, 11" reported from Berthoud
Pass, and 15" at Monarch.

WEATHER

N mtns

Saturday:  Mostly Cloudy, Tr-3".  Winds E-SE & shifting to NW by aftn
5-15, G 20.  Highs 16-26.  Saturday Night:  Mostly cloudy, Tr-3",
Winds W 5-15, G 20-30 along FR, CD. Lows 14-20 Sunday: Cloudy, 2-4".
Winds West5-15, Gs 20s, stronger near the Divide.  Highs 18-25.
Sunday Night: Cloudy, Tr-3".  Winds W 10-20, Gs 30s.  Lows 14-20.

C mtns

Saturday: Snow 3-6" at Monarch, 1-3" elsewhere.  Winds SE Becoming
more NW aftn, 5-15, Highs 18-25.  Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy,
Tr-2", Winds NW 5-15.  Lows 12-18. Sunday: 2-4".  Winds W 5-15.  Highs
18-25.  Sunday Night: Tr-3" additional.  Winds NW 5-15, Gs 20s.  Lows
14-20

S mtns

Saturday: Cloudy, 3-6".  Winds S & shift to NW late aftn, 5-15, Gs
20s. Highs 16-26.  Saturday Night:  Part to Mostly cloudy.  Winds N
5-10, Lows 12-18 Sunday: Mostly cloudy.  Winds NW 5-15, Gs 20s.  Highs
20-30  Sunday Night:  Partly cloudy.  Winds N 5-15.  Lows 15-22

SNOWPACK

New snows in the San Juans & around Monarch Pass came in fairly warm
with higher densities in the initial burst so would expect some
bonding to old snow surfaces, but there were quite a few reports of
surface faceting & sun crusts before the storm which could create some
problems at the interface.  Most areas have seen only light winds
during this event, but some remote weather stations reporting moderate
winds, (Berthoud Pass & Abasin have seen some moderate winds to aid in
moving snow around.  Abasin reporting strong downsloping winds from
the SE, Bert Pass from South). Last few storm cycles have produced
surface instabilities but also failures deeper into the snowpack.  I
expect the same today, especially areas that picked up more than 3".
Use extra caution out there today, avoid the steeper terrain. I will
upgrade some danger ratings, Today's backcountry avalanche danger
ratings are:

N mtns: CONSIDERABLE near & above TL; MODERATE with pockets of
CONSIDERABLE at lower elevations.  Berthoud Pass pockets of HIGH above
& below TL.  C Mtns: MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE all
elevations and aspects, Monarch Pass area HIGH both above & below TL.
W San Juans: CONSIDERABLE on all aspects and elevations.  E San Juans:
MODERATE.  Toepfer