thursDAY, december 14, 2000, 7:30 a.m.

Good morning.  This is Tom Kimbrough with the Forest Service Utah
Avalanche Center with your backcountry avalanche and mountain weather
advisory.  Today is Thursday, December the 14th, and its 7:30 in the
morning.

Current Conditions:

Snow totals for the last 24 hours are coming in at a rather surprising
6 to 12 inches.  The westerly flow has favored some areas that arent
usually known for their big dumps.  Sundance, for example, at 12
inches, got more than Alta who called in 9.  Brighton topped the list
at 13.  The Park City side reports 8 inches and about the same in the
Ogden Mountains.  But neither the new snow or the election isnt the
main story this morning.  Since the good dump on Sunday lots of light
fluff has been adding up.  Now this morning the wind is starting to
increase.  Ridge top speeds are now averaging in the mid twenties with
some gusts to 50 mph.

Avalanche Conditions:

All week I have been nervous about the snow pack.  I may be an old
fogie but Im not alone in my concerns.  While as of yesterday,
stability was increasing since the Sunday storm, we were still getting
lots of reports of cracking, collapsing and whoomping.  I was
wondering why there wasnt more avalanche activity.  Now, in addition
to the added weight of last nights new snow, the wind will be drifting
the fluff all over the place and this may enough to tip the already
teetering balance on many slopes.

There are going to be two distinct avalanche problems today, plus a
combination of them both.  Many areas that face northwest, north and
east have underlying layers of sugary faceted snow.  Many of these
slopes avalanched during the Sunday storm but didnt completely clean
out the weak snow.  Other slopes didnt quite get enough weight to
release but are still near the edge.  Now we have fresh wind drifts to
deal with.  These drifts will be dangerous in themselves, possibly
breaking several feet deep along wind exposed ridges.  But the
drifting snow will also be adding weight to slopes with underlying
faceted layers that were already near the balance point.

For the past several days most backcountry people that I know have
been keeping their slope angles down around 30 degrees and watching
out for steeper slopes above them.  This will be even more important
today and Friday in all wind effected terrain.  Southerly facing
slopes dont have the faceted snow problems but you will still have to
consider the fresh wind drifts.

Bottom Line:

There is a Considerable danger of human triggered avalanches on slopes
approaching 35 degrees and steeper, with the most danger on steep
slopes exposed to wind drifting.  Human triggered avalanches are
likely and natural slides possible.  The danger is Moderate on slopes
without fresh drifts.  Human triggered avalanches are possible in
these areas.  With snowfall continuing today and even stronger winds
in the forecast, the danger may rise and become more widespread.  The
danger is probably highest in the southern parts of the Wasatch, which
received plenty of new snow on an especially weak snowpack.  People
without good route finding and stability evaluation skills should
avoid travel in and around steep terrain.

Mountain Weather:

The series of small storms continues.  The current disturbance should
produce snowfall through this morning, with a short break this
afternoon.  Accumulations will probably be another 3 to 6 inches.
Winds will be 20 to 30 mph from the west.  8,000 foot temperatures
will be around 25 degrees and in the upper teens at 10,000 feet.

Another storm will arrive tonight with more snow and lots of wind.
Saturday looks like decent day with yet another storm due in late
Sunday.

Other:

The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service,
which is solely responsible for its content.  This advisory describes
general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

I will update this advisory by 7:30 on Friday morning.