Colorado Avalanche Information Center Bulletin

This is Knox in the Colorado Avalanche Information Center with current
information on mountain weather, snow, and avalanche conditions at
7:15 am, Friday, March 15, 2002.

DISCUSSION

New snow amounts reported early this morning were: Winter Park 2, A
Basin 1, Breckenridge 4, Copper 3, Vail 3, Aspen Highlands 2, McClure
Pass 2, Red Mtn Pass 1. A broad but weak trough of low pressure sits
over Colorado and much of the western US, and this will continue to
bring cool and unsettled weather to our mountains through the weekend.
Today we will see drying conditions as a very weak ridge of high
pressure moves overhead, but on Saturday and Sunday there will be
enough moisture on SW flow for scattered snow showers. The forecast
details:

Northern Mountains

Friday: Variable clouds, isolated snow showers. Winds SW/5-10. Highs
10-20. Lows -2 to +8.                 Saturday: Partly to mostly
cloudy, scattered snow showers. Winds SW/5-15. Highs 14-24. Lows 0-10.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers. Winds
SW/15-25. Highs 14-24.

Central Mountains

Friday: Variable clouds, isolated snow showers. Winds SW/5-10. Highs
12-22. Lows -2 to +8.                 Saturday: Partly to mostly
cloudy, scattered snow showers. Winds SW/10-20. Highs 14-24. Lows
0-10.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers. Winds
SW/15-25. Highs 14-24.

Southern Mountains

Friday: Partly cloudy. Winds SW/5-10. Highs 12-22. Lows -2 to +8.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers. Winds
SW/10-20. Highs 14-24. Lows 0-10.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers. Winds
SW/15-25. Highs 14-24.

SNOWPACK

On Thursday there were 2 separate, fatal avalanche accidents. One was
near Ashcroft south of Aspen, in which 1 BC skier was killed and 2
others were injured. Rescuers who went into the Ashcroft area
yesterday describe the snowpack as "really scary". The other was
outside the Aspen Mtn ski area boundary, in which an out-of-bounds
skier was killed. 

There is ample unstable snow in all BC areas, all due to recent
loading of new snow and blowing snow on top of the faceted snowpack
that has plagued us all winter. The fresh snow may have bonded well to
the old surface, but it has seriously stressed the weak mid and lower
snowpack layers. In addition to the scary snowpack in the C mtns
around Ashcroft, another spooky snowpack report comes from the
backcountry near Ophir, which is south of Telluride. On Thursday in
this area, there was widespread collapsing, shooting cracks, and small
slab releases on NE-S aspects, but you should be suspect of all
aspects in this area.

The backcountry avalanche danger is:

N and C mtns: overall MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE. Triggered
releases by BC travelers are possible on all aspects, 35 degrees and
steeper, at all elevations. Slopes and gullies recently loaded with
falling and blowing snow are the most suspect.

West San Juans: overall MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on NW-E
aspects. Triggered releases by BC travelers are possible on slopes 35
degrees and steeper, at all elevations. On SE-W aspects, the danger is
overall LOW, with pockets of MODERATE.

East San Juans around Wolf Creek: MODERATE on N-E aspects, all
elevations; LOW on other aspects. 

Williams