Colorado Avalanche Information Center

Public Forecast of Weather and Backcountry Avalanche Conditions

This is Dale in the Colorado Avalanche Information Center with current
information on mountain weather, snow, and avalanche conditions posted
at 7:15 am, Sunday, March 17, 2002, St. Patrick's Day.

DISCUSSION

CO remains under a broad and cold trough of low pressure with the jet
stream just to our south. Today mid-level moisture is moving across
the mountains on weak SW'erly flow. It is producing some clouds and
snows this morning in the C&S mtns, but skies are clear over Summit
County and the Front Range. Expect clouds to increase later this
morning in the N mtns while morning snows in the C&S mtns will
decrease before picking up again tonight. Late tonight a stronger
system arrives from the west, and this will favor the S mtns but has
the potential for moderate snows in all mountains through Monday. The
forecast details:

Northern Mountains

Sunday: Becoming partly cloudy, scattered snow showers especially in
the afternoon, 0-2". Winds SW/10-20 G30 abv TL. Highs 14 to 24.
Tonight: Snow showers, 1-4" additional. Winds SW/10-20 G30. Lows 0 to
10.

Monday: Cloudy, snow showers, 2-4" add. Afternoon winds veering
NW/10-20 G30. Highs 12 to 22.

Central Mountains

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers, T-2". Winds SW/10-20
G30. Highs 14 to 24.

Sunday night: Snow showers: Aspen and Leadville zones, 2-4"; Crested
Butte zone and Monarch Pass area, 3-6". Winds SW/10-20 G30. Lows 0 to
10.

Monday: Cloudy, snow showers, 2-4" add. Afternoon winds veering
NW/10-20 G30. Highs 14 to 24.

Southern Mountains

Sunday: Morning snow showers decreasing and becoming mostly cloudy
with scattered showers by late morning, T-2". Winds SW/10-20 G30.
Highs 14 to 24.
Sunday night: Snow, possibly moderate at times, 3-6". Winds SW/15-25
G40s. Lows 0 to 10.

Monday: Snow, decreasing in afternoon, 3-6" add. Afternoon winds
veering NW/10-20 G30. Highs 14 to 24.

SNOWPACK

The rescue at Telluride continues. The search effort for the missing
out-of-area snowboarder is hampered by very deep and hard debris.

Early reports of new snow this morning: Ashcroft, A-Basin, and Copper,
1 inch; Silverton and Telluride, 2; Red Mountain Pass, 2.5; Molas
Pass, 3; Durango Mtn Resort, McClure Pass, 4; Coal Bank Pass, 7.5; and
Wolf Creek, 9 inches.  As Knox mentioned yesterday we are in the midst
of an unprecedented weak snowpack for mid-March, and it extends from
Steamboat to Telluride. There were 3 avalanche deaths at the end of
last week. The southerly-facing slopes have some strength, but all
other aspects (W to N to E) have a deep layer of weak, faceted sugar
snow, with slab on top. The snowpack resembles a table covered with
spilled sugar, then a heavy book is placed on top, and the table is
tilted at on end. In other words the snowpack is a dangerous house of
cards waiting for a trigger. It's producing very few naturals at this
time but is easily susceptible to a trigger, it will break to the
ground, and it will not stabilize anytime soon. It is also possible to
trigger releases from the bottom of steep slopes, too. More snow
tonight and Monday may worsen the danger, especially if the winds
cause much blowing snow.

The backcountry avalanche danger is:

N and C mtns: overall CONSIDERABLE, with pockets of HIGH likely in the
Elk Mts. Triggered releases by backcountry travelers are possible to
probable on all aspects, 35 degrees and steeper, at all elevations.

West San Juans: overall CONSIDERABLE on NW-E aspects, with pockets of
HIGH. Triggered releases by backcountry travelers are possible to
probable on slopes 35 degrees and steeper, at all elevations. On SE-W
aspects, the danger is LOW to MODERATE, because of recent sun crust
formation.

East San Juans around Wolf Creek: overall MODERATE. Triggered releases
are possible.

Atkins