Colorado Avalanche Information Center

Public Forecast of Weather and Backcountry Avalanche Conditions

This is Dale in the Colorado Avalanche Information Center with current
information on mountain weather, snow, and avalanche conditions posted
at 7:30 am, Monday, March 18, 2002.

DISCUSSION

The West coast storm will move east, tracking across southern AZ, so
snows today will favor our S mtns. But all mountains will get at a
little. Better chance for snow in the N mtns this evening as the winds
shift to the NW. Expect a wide range of snow amounts as convection
will be the primary mechanism to fuel snow fall. On Tuesday snow
showers favor the N mtns on W-NW flow, and by Wednesday high pressure
starts to move in with warmer and spring-like conditions for the end
of the week. The forecast details:

Northern Mountains

Monday: Mostly cloudy, snow showers developing, T-3". Winds SW/10-20
G30 veering W by late afternoon. Highs 12 to 22.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy, snow showers, T-3" add. Winds NW/10-20
G30. Lows 2 to 12.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers, 0-2". Winds NW-W/10-20
G30, though stronger gusts over Front Range and Tenmile Range by
afternoon. Highs 14 to 24.

Central Mountains

Monday: Mostly cloudy, snow showers, Aspen and Leadville zones, T-3";
Crested Butte and south Sawatch zones, 2-4". Winds SW/10-20 G30
veering W by late afternoon. Highs 14 to 24.
Monday night: Mostly cloudy, snow showers, partial clearing late in
Crested Butte and S Sawatch, T-3" add. Winds NW/10-20 G30. Lows 0 to
10.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, scattered snow showers lingering in Aspen and
Leadville zones, 0-2". Winds NW-W/10-20 G30. Highs 15 to 25.

Southern Mountains

Monday: Cloudy, snow showers, 3-6". Winds S-SW/10-20 G30 veering W by
late afternoon. Highs 14 to 24.
Monday night: Evening snow showers, then partial clearing. Winds
NW/10-20 G30. Lows 0 to 10.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, few morning showers on high peaks  Winds
NW-W/5-15 G25. Highs 17 to 27.

SNOWPACK

This winter's lean snowfall that left a snow cover consisting of
mostly depth hoar (faceted sugar-like snow), is coming back to haunt
us and will continue to haunt us until the snow melts. On Sunday
afternoon a snowmobiler was buried and killed near Dunckley Pass west
of Yampa in the NE Flattops (about 25 miles SW of Steamboat Springs).
This was the 4^th death in 4 days. We will post more details on our
web site later today. Also additional reports from the Flattops tell
of a very unstable snowcover. I suspect snow conditions in the
Flattops to be similar to the Elks and West San Juans, only that the
Flattops did not receive quite as much snow in the past week. This
means that few if any natural avalanches ran in the Flattops; however,
triggered avalanches are probable.

In most mountain areas the danger during January and February was on
the low side as storms and slabs were few and far between. In the past
10 days most areas received significant snows and this created
widespread slab conditions. Now all that is needed for an avalanche is
a steep slope and a trigger. Observers report some of the weakest snow
is at and below treeline. Avalanches can be triggered from steep
slopes and from shallow slopes directly below steep slopes. Extra
caution is required for all backcountry travel.

The backcountry avalanche danger is: N and C mtns: overall
CONSIDERABLE. Triggered releases by backcountry travelers are probable
on all aspects, 35 degrees and steeper, at all elevations. West San
Juans: overall CONSIDERABLE on NW-E aspects, triggered releases by
backcountry travelers are probable on slopes 35 degrees and steeper,
at all elevations. On SE-W aspects, the danger is MODERATE, because of
recent sun crust formation. East San Juans around Wolf Creek: MODERATE
with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on NW-NE-E aspects. Upwards of 16 inches
of snow has fallen in this area in the past couple of days.

Atkins