This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory for the Glacier Park and Flathead and Kootenai National Forest areas issued at 8:00 AM, Friday, February 8, 2002, by Northwestern Montana's Glacier Country Avalanche Center. HAZARD ANALYSIS: The avalanche danger is currently being rated as Moderate on steep, open slopes and gullies on all aspects, but particularly those that have been wind loaded.This danger rating expires after midnight, Friday, February 8. The outlook for Friday through Sunday is for the avalanche danger to increase to Considerable if the heavy snow warning materializes for Northwest Montana on Friday. This is due to the expected heavy accumulations of snow accompanied by strong winds on Friday.Because of the general nature of this advisory message each backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations. WEATHER ANALYSIS: Snow water equivalents continue to gain through out Northwest Montana according to sensors at the electronic sites. SWE gains ranged from .4 to 2.1 inches in the west portion of the advisory area or the Kootenai National Forest and .5 inches to 1.5 inches in the Flathead area since Wednesday. The Noisy site picked up only a .5 inch gain in the last 24 hours while the North Jocko site registered a 1.5 inch gain in the last 24 hour period. Daytime and nighttime temperatures have moderated since Tuesday. Daytime temperatures have been on the warm side from the high twenties to the low thirties. Nighttime lows ranged from the mid twenties to the low thirties. Recordings from wind speed indicators from atop Big Mountain were averaging 15 to 19 mph from Tuesday to midday on Thursday when the average wind speed dropped to average 8 mph. Winds have been predominately out of the SW. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS: Our field observations on Thursday were from Scenery Mountain, which is in north end of the East Cabinets on the Kootenai National Forest, the north end of the Mission Range on the Flathead National Forest and from the Marias Pass and Many Glacier areas of Glacier National Park. We also had an observer report from the Marion Creek drainage in the Middle Fork of the Flathead. Natural avalanches were not observed from observation reports The snow pit observations were finding that the greatest instability is within the top 20 centimeters of the snow pack over a low-density weakly bonded layer. Below the top 20 centimeters, shear test were recording moderate failures over buried graupel layers and within or just below the January 7 melt freeze layer. Wind loading has been observed on northerly aspects from most reports. AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION: On steep, open slopes and gullies, particularly those that have received any significant wind loading recently, we are currently rating the avalanche danger as MODERATE. Unstable slab layers are possible on steep open slopes and gullies. Natural avalanches are unlikely, while human triggered avalanches are possible. Caution should be used in areas influenced by wind transport. Backcountry travelers should be very cautious in steeper terrain, especially on wind-loaded aspects. Since Tuesday, the snow pack has settled and consolidated to a degree. The concern is the wind loading that has occurred on north aspects and especially with the possibility of heavy accumulations predicted for Friday with strong winds accompanying an incoming low-pressure system. The avalanche instability would increase to at least Considerable if this heavy snow warning does materialize over Northwest Montana on Friday. This would mean that areas of unstable snow would exist. Natural avalanches would then be possible, while human triggered avalanches would then be probable. Backcountry travelers need to be alert if the snow and winds develop from this heavy snow warning. WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: A strong Pacific low-pressure system will continue to move inland on Friday morning. The actual track of this system is questionable and it appears the system will be just south of Northwest Montana. The flow will remain west to northwest and plenty of moisture is available especially over Glacier National Park and the Swan and Mission Ranges. The actual track of this storm system will make all the difference. The more it tracks south the lighter will be our snow accumulations. Some light snow showers should continue through Saturday morning but following this high pressure should build over our region this weekend. This will result in milder temperatures. The next weather system to affect our area will likely not occur until Monday. For the mountains the weather forecast is predicting 6 to 16 inches of snow on Friday, above 6000 feet in elevation. Saturday could see 0 to 3 inches and Sunday?s prediction is for 0 to 1 inch of snowfall. Mountain maximum air temperatures should be 20 to 25 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday. Saturday ?s maximum temperatures are predicted to be 22 to 27 degrees Fahrenheit. Sunday ?s maximum temperatures are predicted to be 25 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit. Mountain winds Friday are forecasted to be 25 to 35 MPH out of the NW. Expect W winds on Saturday 15 to 25 mph. SW winds at 20 to 30 mph are predicted for Sunday. The next regularly scheduled update of this advisory message will be on Tuesday, February 12, 2002. Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of snow pack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day this advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist. Tony Willits Swan Lake Ranger District (406) 837-5546