9 AM PST SUNDAY 20 JANUARY 2002 ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS..... WEST OLYMPICS...WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST...MT HOOD AREA... ........AVALANCHE WARNING............. High avalanche danger below 7000 feet Sunday and Sunday night. Avalanche danger gradually decreasing Monday, becoming considerable below 7000 feet. Avalanche danger further gradually decreasing Monday night. EAST OLYMPICS AND HURRICANE RIDGE...WASHINGTON CASCADES EAST OF THE CREST... Considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below Sunday and Sunday night. Avalanche danger gradually decreasing Monday, becoming considerable above 6000 feet and moderate below. Avalanche danger further gradually decreasing Monday night. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS.... The latest storm and heavy snow began on Saturday night. About 10 to 14 inches of new snow is reported on Sunday morning near and west of the Cascade crest, with less at Hurricane Ridge and east of the Cascade crest. Very strong west winds also began on Saturday night. By Sunday morning, wind gusts of 80 to over 100 mph are being seen at NWAC mountain top sites such as Mission Ridge, White Pass, and Timberline. This should have caused new storm cycle slab layers to have developed in deep new snow on some lee slopes. This should be mainly northeast to southeast aspects due to the west winds, but cross loading on other aspects is also possible. Natural or easily triggered avalanches in the new layers should already be likely in many areas by Sunday morning. Avalanches of new slab layers may step to deeper layers of buried hoar frost that developed last week at moderate and lower elevations, and slide longer than usual distances on the hard buried crust from earlier this month. The greatest danger by Sunday morning should be in areas that accumulate the most snow, which is expected to be the west Olympics and near and west of the Cascade crest. Generally smaller or shallower, but easily triggered slab avalanches are also probable Sunday morning in the other areas as well. SUNDAY..... Very strong west winds and heavy snow are expected to continue on Sunday, especially over the west Olympics and near and west of the Cascade crest, at slightly warmer temperatures. This should continue to cause new slab layers to develop in deep new snow on some steep slopes. This should continue to be mainly northeast to southeast aspects due to the west winds, but cross loading on other aspects is also possible. Natural or easily triggered avalanches in the new layers should continue to be likely in many areas, and may step to deeper layers, and slide longer than usual distances on the hard buried crust from earlier this month. The greatest danger should be in areas that accumulate the most snow, which is expected to be the west Olympics and near and west of the Cascade crest. Generally shallower, but easily triggered avalanches are also probable on some steep slopes in the other areas as well. Backcountry travel near avalanche terrain is not recommended on Sunday. MONDAY..... The west winds and snow should gradually decrease on Monday at cooler temperatures. Orographic effects and convergence may allow snow showers to persist the most along the west slopes of the north and central Cascades. By Monday, avalanches on some slopes and settlement on other slopes should diminish the avalanche danger in snow from Sunday. The cooler temperatures should generally favor more stable profiles in new snow layers that accumulate Monday. But slab layers from Sunday should also persist on some steep lee slopes. Local new slab surface layers may also continue to form on some steep lee slopes through at least Monday morning. This should continue to be mainly northeast to southeast aspects. Human triggered avalanches should remain probable on steep lee slopes at higher elevations Monday. Backcountry travelers who might choose to venture out near avalanche terrain so soon after the strong storm should use a lot of caution. Periodic snow stability evaluation should be very worthwhile, especially due to uncertainties regarding snow stability so soon after the storm. Further decreasing winds and snowfall, and further settlement should allow the avalanche danger to further gradually decrease Monday night.