9 AM PST Monday, January 21, 2002 ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS..... WEST OLYMPICS...WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST... Considerable avalanche danger below 7000 feet Monday, slightly decreasing. Further slowly decreasing danger Monday night, becoming considerable above 4 to 5000 feet and moderate below. Avalanche danger slightly increasing Tuesday becoming considerable above 3 to 4000 feet and moderate below. Avalanche danger gradually decreasing Tuesday night. MT HOOD AREA.... Considerable avalanche danger below 7000 feet Monday, slightly decreasing. Further slowly decreasing danger Monday night, becoming considerable above 5000 feet and moderate below. Avalanche danger slightly increasing Tuesday becoming considerable above 4000 feet and moderate below. Avalanche danger gradually decreasing Tuesday night. EAST OLYMPICS AND HURRICANE RIDGE...WASHINGTON CASCADES EAST OF THE CREST... Considerable avalanche danger above 6000 feet and moderate below Monday, slightly decreasing. Further slowly decreasing avalanche danger Monday night. Slightly increasing avalanche danger Tuesday remaining considerable above about 6000 feet and moderate below. Avalanche danger gradually decreasing Tuesday night. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS.... Another 6 to 14 inches of new snow fell over the last 24 hours near and west of the Cascade crest with some 2 to 5 inches along the east slopes. Over the last three days west side snowfall has ranged from about 18 to over 30 inches and over 40 inches over the Mt Hood area with significantly less along the east slopes of the Cascades. The most recent snow fell at cooling temperatures with strong winds Sunday, with westerly ridge top winds averaging 25 to 40 mph with several sites recording gusts over 100 mph. His is likely to have deposited significant wind slabs on lee slopes, mainly northeast to southeast with some other cross loaded slopes as well. Also, due to the strength of the winds, many slopes may have wind deposits and unstable slab formation much lower down the leeward slopes. On wind exposed slopes, new snow is likely to be scoured to older harder wind deposits or possibly to the old hard rain crust formed earlier this month, thus limiting the danger on these aspects. Slides beginning in near surface weaknesses may trigger more deeply buried weak layers of buried surface hoar or faceted snow just above the old crust, now buried 2 to 4 feet below the surface. This is maintaining the possibility of some deeper releases of up to 5 feet or more. The greatest present danger is likely on mainly steeper northeast through southeast facing slopes where natural slabs avalanches are possible and triggered releases likely. MONDAY..... Gradually decreasing west winds with light to moderate snow showers at low freezing levels should allow for a slightly decreasing danger. However, on steeper wind loaded slopes mostly unstable snow should persist with triggered soft slabs likely, especially at higher elevations where stronger winds have occurred. The strong winds have likely scoured recent snow from many windward westerly-facing slopes, limiting the danger on these aspects exposed to the strong winds. Some new deposits of shallow surface wind slabs may develop on mainly easterly facing slopes, especially where more significant new snow falls, such as the north central Washington Cascade west slopes in a convergence zone. Decreasing snow showers Monday night should allow for gradual settlement and a slightly decreasing danger. TUESDAY... Increasing snow showers and slightly increasing northwest winds should cause a gradually increasing danger as new areas of wind slab layers form on lee slopes, especially at mid and higher elevations and those areas receiving the heaviest showers, mainly the central Washington Cascade west slopes in convergence. Backcountry travelers should exercise extreme caution and avoid slopes of questionable stability. Some shallow slides may trigger more deeply buried layers resulting large deposits of debris.