January 21st-27th 2002 is Washington Avalanche Awareness Week 0815 AM PST Sunday, January 27, 2002 ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS..... OLYMPICS AND WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST...MT HOOD AREA... High avalanche danger above 5 to 6000 feet and considerable below Sunday slowly decreasing Sunday night and Monday and becoming considerable above 5 to 6000 feet and moderate below. EAST SLOPES WASHINGTON CASCADES.... Considerable avalanche danger above 6000 feet and moderate below slowly decreasing Sunday and becoming moderate below 7000 feet Sunday night and Monday. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS..... Since the significant rain events and rain crust formed in early January, the Mt Hood area, the Olympics and most areas of the Washington Cascades near and west of the crest have received from 6 to 10 feet of snow, much of it arriving during the past week. Combined with some recent strong wind transport, this resulted in significant avalanche danger last Thursday through Saturday, with several buried weak layers helping to maintain high avalanche danger below 7000 feet in the Olympics and most areas near and west of the Cascade crest. Although generally lighter new snowfall and some settlement during the past 24 hours has helped to slowly decrease the avalanche danger from the recent avalanche warning conditions, many natural and human triggered slides were reported during the past several days and further avalanches remain likely at higher elevations and probable at lower elevations. In many areas, weak shear layers lie from 12 to over 30 inches below the snow surface, and other more deeply buried weak layers exist near old early January crust that now lies from 4 to 8 feet beneath the snow surface. These weak layers consist primarily of buried surface hoar, faceted snow or lower density low wind deposited snow received during brief clearing or breaks between storms. While lowering temperatures and gradually diminishing winds during the past few days have produced a slightly more stable density profile in the upper 6 to 12 inches of the snow pack, significant concern remains for slides releasing on one or more of the more deeply buried weak layers. Although most avalanches should involve only the most recently deposited new snow received Thursday through Saturday, such slabs may still involve from 1 to 3 feet or more of snow, and these direct action slides may trigger isolated larger climax slides reaching through a thin melt freeze or wind crust and releasing down to the old early January crust...especially in areas not experiencing recent avalanche activity. The lure of fluffy champagne surface snow, an overall decrease in showers and some partial clearing Sunday with further clearing Monday should not blind travelers from the continuing avalanche danger that lurks beneath the placid snow surface. Travelers are strongly urged to perform normal safety and stability tests of the snow pack and continue to make safe route selections. Several skiers and boarders have been very lucky during the past week of high danger and these accidents illustrate the need for always applying safe travel techniques and for continually assessing snow pack stability. Significantly less recent snowfall has been received along the Cascade east slopes during the past week, however a similar though shallower unstable snow structure exists over the old rain crust and this is helping to maintain a considerable danger at higher elevations and a moderate danger below, with greatest danger on steeper northeast and east exposures near the Cascade crest. Recent field reports near Blewett Pass indicate that generally small amounts of recent snow exist over either faceted snow or surface hoar above the old crust, however in steeper higher elevation wind affected terrain, slightly larger wind slabs may be easily triggered by back country travelers. SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT..... Light to moderate showers in the north and moderate to occasionally heavy showers in the south Sunday morning should gradually decrease Sunday afternoon with slow clearing and much colder weather spreading southward later Sunday night and early Monday. This weather should produce little change in the danger on Sunday but should allow for a slight decrease in the danger late Sunday. However, the large amounts of recent unconsolidated snow may take several days or more to settle, especially since the expected increasingly cold snow temperatures should limit grain bonding within the snow pack, and associated strong temperature gradients may help to gradually weaken snow layers near significant density variations within the upper part of the snow pack. As a result backcountry travelers should use considerable caution in avalanche terrain and should avoid steeper open lee slopes showing no evidence of recent avalanche activity, with greatest danger on steeper northeast through southeast facing slopes above about 5000 feet. MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT.... Scattered light showers in the south should decrease Monday morning with a clearing trend spreading southward and mostly fair and cold weather likely in most areas Monday afternoon and night. This should allow for a further slight decrease in the avalanche danger...however continuing low temperatures should make this a very slow process. The cold air temperatures should also allow for further faceting and recrystallization of the snow pack near and above buried crusts or high density snow layers, with a rather fragile bond probably continuing between the recent heavy snowfall and the old early January crust. Finally, some surface hoar that may form both Sunday and Monday nights should be closely monitored prior to the next snowfall.