Northern Mountains

This is Dale in the Avalanche Center at 2:30 pm, Sunday, February 16,
2003.
DISCUSSION
The first wave of clouds is moving over CO and already causing snow
showers on the west slope. These showers will spread eastward this
afternoon, but may see some breaks in the clouds this evening before
the cold front moves in around midnight. Frontal passage will produce
a burst of moderate snow. This system will bring a quick shot of snow
and wind favoring the N&C mtns. Expect winds to increase this evening
and tonight especially above treeline. On Monday winds and snows
decrease with another weak Pacific system expected later Tuesday. The
forecast details:
Northern Mountains
Sunday night: Snow, 1-4 inches, locally heavier amounts possible.
Increasing winds above treeline WSW/20-30 G50+. Lows 10 to 20.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, snow showers decreasing by afternoon, T-2
inches. Decreasing winds by afternoon, W/10-20 G40. Highs 17 to 27.
Lows 5 to 15.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers. Winds W-NW/5-15 G25.
Highs 15 to 25.
SNOWPACK
Early reports of new snow this morning are in the 1-3 inch range of
which most fell during the day Saturday. This dusting of new snow is
not enough additional weight to change the backcountry avalanche
danger. Snowfall totalsthough a bit wetter than averagesince the 13th
have not been very impressive (S mtns and Crested Butte zone, 8 to 12+
inches; rest of C and N mtns, 2 to 6 inches); however, the number of
reported avalanches were impressive. In the last three days there have
been lots of avalanches reported: S mtns, 100+; C mtns, 29; and N
mtns, 8. Events in the S mtns and south side of the Elks/W Elks are a
good indicator of what can be expected in the other mountain areas
when we get a good storm.
Most of the avalanches have been on W-N-E aspects with the northerly
aspects being the most active. Instability in the mid-pack is
widespread with buried near-surface facets and/or surface hoar. Most
of the avalanches have involved the new snow, though where the snow is
shallow some avalanches have released to the ground. Observers in the
S&C mtns have been reporting collapsing and cracks shooting out from
underfoot.
Be very leery of steep slopes this Presidents weekend. Tonights new
snow and blowing snow will create another shallow soft slab that will
be prone to triggered release. Even a few natural releases may be
expected on the steep, leeward slopes near and above treeline caused
by blowing snow tonight or early Monday morning.
For tonight and Monday the backcountry avalanche danger ... N mtns:
generally MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE near and above
treeline on NW-NE-SE aspects. Triggered releases are possible to
probable. The ABasin patrol reports ski cuts produced shooting cracks
and were also able to trigger small slabs involving the new snow on
SW-W aspects at 12,000 feet. The wind tonight will only stiffen these
slabs so Mondays releases in the N mtns will likely be larger.
We are also starting to watch the rain crust that formed last Thursday
in all mountain areas. Rain was reported in all mountain areas at
elevations above 9000 feet. Even in areas not known for rain like the
Flattops and the Front Range (Rocky Mountain National Park) the crust
has been reported at elevations as high as 10,000 feet.
Atkins

Central Mountains

This is Dale in the Avalanche Center at 2:30 pm, Sunday, February 16,
2003.
DISCUSSION
The first wave of clouds is moving over CO and already causing snow
showers on the west slope. These showers will spread eastward this
afternoon, but may see some breaks in the clouds this evening before
the cold front moves in around midnight. Frontal passage will produce
a burst of moderate snow. This system will bring a quick shot of snow
and wind favoring the N&C mtns. Expect winds to increase this evening
and tonight especially above treeline. On Monday winds and snows
decrease with another weak Pacific system expected later Tuesday. The
forecast details:
Central Mountains
Sunday night: Snow, 1-4 inches. Increasing winds above treeline
WSW/10-20 G40s above treeline. Lows teens.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for morning snow showers, 0-1 inch.
Decreasing winds by afternoon, W/10-20 G40. Highs 19 to 29. Lows 5 to
15.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers. Winds W-NW/5-15 G25.
Highs 17 to 27.
SNOWPACK
Early reports of new snow this morning are in the 1-3 inch range of
which most fell during the day Saturday. This dusting of new snow is
not enough additional weight to change the backcountry avalanche
danger. Snowfall totalsthough a bit wetter than averagesince the 13th
have not been very impressive (S mtns and Crested Butte zone, 8 to 12+
inches; rest of C and N mtns, 2 to 6 inches); however, the number of
reported avalanches were impressive. In the last three days there have
been lots of avalanches reported: S mtns, 100+; C mtns, 29; and N
mtns, 8. Events in the S mtns and south side of the Elks/W Elks are a
good indicator of what can be expected in the other mountain areas
when we get a good storm.
Most of the avalanches have been on W-N-E aspects with the northerly
aspects being the most active. Instability in the mid-pack is
widespread with buried near-surface facets and/or surface hoar. Most
of the avalanches have involved the new snow, though where the snow is
shallow some avalanches have released to the ground. Observers in the
S&C mtns have been reporting collapsing and cracks shooting out from
underfoot. Be very leery of steep slopes this Presidents weekend.
Tonights new snow and blowing snow will create another shallow soft
slab that will be prone to triggered release. Even a few natural
releases may be expected on the steep, leeward slopes near and above
treeline caused by blowing snow tonight or early Monday morning.
For tonight and Mondaythe backcountry avalanche danger ... C mtns:
generally MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on W-N-E aspects at
all elevations. Triggered releases are possible to even probable.
We are also starting to watch the rain crust that formed last Thursday
in all mountain areas. Rain was reported in all mountain areas at
elevations above 9000 feet. Even in areas not known for rain like the
Flattops and the Front Range (Rocky Mountain National Park) the crust
has been reported at elevations as high as 10,000 feet.
Atkins

Southern Mountains

This is Dale in the Avalanche Center at 2:30 pm, Sunday, February 16,
2003.
DISCUSSION
The first wave of clouds is moving over CO and already causing snow
showers on the west slope. These showers will spread eastward this
afternoon, but may see some breaks in the clouds this evening before
the cold front moves in around midnight. Frontal passage will produce
a burst of moderate snow. This system will bring a quick shot of snow
and wind favoring the N&C mtns. Expect winds to increase this evening
and tonight especially above treeline. On Monday winds and snows
decrease with another weak Pacific system expected later Tuesday. The
forecast details:
Southern Mountains
Sunday night: Snow showers, 1-4 inches. Winds SW-W/10-20 G40. Lows 13
to 23.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for morning snow showers, 0-1 inch.
Decreasing winds by afternoon, W/10-20 G30. Highs 22 to 27. Lows
teens.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers. Winds W-NW/5-15 G25.
Highs 17 to 27.
SNOWPACK
Early reports of new snow this morning are in the 1-3 inch range of
which most fell during the day Saturday. This dusting of new snow is
not enough additional weight to change the backcountry avalanche
danger. Snowfall totalsthough a bit wetter than averagesince the 13th
have not been very impressive (S mtns and Crested Butte zone, 8 to 12+
inches; rest of C and N mtns, 2 to 6 inches); however, the number of
reported avalanches were impressive. In the last three days there have
been lots of avalanches reported: S mtns, 100+; C mtns, 29; and N
mtns, 8. Events in the S mtns and south side of the Elks/W Elks are a
good indicator of what can be expected in the other mountain areas
when we get a good storm.
Most of the avalanches have been on W-N-E aspects with the northerly
aspects being the most active. Instability in the mid-pack is
widespread with buried near-surface facets and/or surface hoar. Most
of the avalanches have involved the new snow, though where the snow is
shallow some avalanches have released to the ground. Observers in the
S&C mtns have been reporting collapsing and cracks shooting out from
underfoot. Be very leery of steep slopes this Presidents weekend.
Tonights new snow and blowing snow will create another shallow soft
slab that will be prone to triggered release. Even a few natural
releases may be expected on the steep, leeward slopes near and above
treeline caused by blowing snow tonight or early Monday morning.
For tonight and Monday the backcountry avalanche danger ... S mtns:
CONSIDERABLE at all elevations. Triggered avalanches will be probable
especially on the steeper and cooler northerly aspects. In the Wolf
Creek Pass area the most troubling slopes are those Extra caution is
needed for all backcountry travel. Backcountry travelers should avoid
slopes 30 degrees and steeper.
We are also starting to watch the rain crust that formed last Thursday
in all mountain areas. Rain was reported in all mountain areas at
elevations above 9000 feet. Even in areas not known for rain like the
Flattops and the Front Range (Rocky Mountain National Park) the crust
has been reported at elevations as high as 10,000 feet.
Atkins