Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center Backcountry Forecast Good morning. This is Kevin Davis of the Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center with a backcountry update for Friday, March 7th, 2003, with an outlook for Saturday and Sunday. This report does not apply to local ski areas within the forecast region and will remain in effect through midnight March 7th. Avalanche conditions throughout the panhandle region are rated as CONSIDERABLE at elevations above 4500 feet on slopes of 30 degrees or more. Unstable slab layering does exist on all aspects. Natural avalanches are possible, while human triggered avalanches are probable. Below 4500 feet, the avalanche danger is rated as moderate. Natural avalanches are unlikely, while human triggered avalanches are possible. The outlook for Saturday and Sunday is for continued snowfall and strong westerly winds. Remember that avalanches are most frequent within 24 hours of new snowfall. If it continues to snow elevated avalanche conditions will exist throughout the weekend. WEATHER The heavy snowfall that was predicted for this week did not materialize in our forecast region although we are getting a decent accumulation of new snow. It sounds like the storm center passed to the south of us. Consequently, fellow sliders in the St. Joe region will enjoy more new snow than fellow sliders to the north. The Snotel site on Lookout Pass is recording 17 inches of 12 % new snow accumulation since Wednesday. In comparison, the Hidden Lake Snotel site, up Smith Creek west of Bonners Ferry, is recording 4 inches of 25% new snow accumulation since Wednesday. Winds picked up earlier in the week and continued to blow consistently at speeds of 20-30mph and gusting at 50-60 plus. You WILL find areas of significant windloaded snow on lee, mainly easterly, aspects. At the top of Schweitzer this morning winds are blowing 15-20mph out of the southwest and the temperature at 6,000 feet is 15F. Temperatures will warm slightly throughout the day but the snow level will stay low in the valleys. New snow accumulation of 2 inches is forecast for today. Tonight another 2 inches is expected. Temperatures have remained on the cold side for about two weeks with only a couple peaks above the freezing mark. This has allowed those same weak layers to linger in the pack. SNOWPACK The most obvious weak layers will exist within the new snow accumulation of the past several days. Density of the new stuff is low so that means good powder and less stress put upon the weak layers in the pack. Obvious avalanche signs may be sneaky. However, the wind has been blowing very hard out of the west/southwest so you will find areas of deep wind deposited snow well below ridgelines where weak layers will be under greater stress. Exposed lee slopes have developed a wind slab that could be touchy. While out testing the snow north of Schweitzer yesterday we witnessed collapsing of the snow on east aspects. The weak layer was the same old surface hoar layer that is continuing to facet that is now buried about 30 inches deep. Failures in our shear tests were also coming easily in the new wind deposited snow on a slight crust. This will continue to be weak as it gets buried. Faceted snow over the crust layer on south aspects is surprisingly weak as well and we experienced frequent whumphing of this layer that is buried about 10 inches. In the St. Regis Basin, Carole found over one foot of new snow on a crust layer that, when tested, failed with easy to moderate stress applied. She felt that with the new snow and wind in the forecast that conditions would be considerable for today. Ed Odegaard had a hard time maneuvering in nearly two feet of new snow and dug pits at 4,200 feet. Even at this low elevation he found easy shears at a layer of faceted snow over a crust with the 2 feet of new snow over it. You can bet that this layering exists at higher elevations only with a lot more snow piled on it. There is a lot to consider this weekend since cold temperatures, wind, and new snow are all combining forces to make a rather complex set of conditions out there. I believe the pack is in a highly potential state at the moment meaning that there are numerous weak layers that have been forming for some time. Cold temperatures, wind, and new snow are stretching the rubber band to the breaking point. TERRAIN I would recommend thoroughly testing all slopes before committing by digging pits, hammering on small slopes of low consequence, and paying attention to clues such as wind-loading and whumphing noises. Avoid areas below loaded lee aspects. Travel through forested areas will be safer and be your best bet for finding the quality snow conditions. Unstable layering exists on all aspects and more snow with wind will potentially develop more. This concludes the forecast for this weekend. The next forecast is scheduled for next Friday, March 14th, or sooner if conditions change to a degree that would require an earlier update. Avalanche conditions change for better or worse continually. Backcountry travelers should be prepared to assess current conditions for themselves, plan their routes of travel accordingly, and never travel alone. Backcountry travelers can reduce their exposure to avalanche hazards by utilizing timbered trails and ridge routes and by avoiding open and exposed terrain with slope angles of 30 degrees or more. Backcountry travelers should carry the necessary avalanche rescue equipment such as a shovel, avalanche probe or probe ski poles, a rescue beacon and a well-equipped first aid kit. Have a safe and pleasant weekend.