Good Morning, this is Jay Gress with the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with the Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Sunday, March 9, 2003 at 7am. This advisory is brought to you by the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center, supported in part by Sun Summit Ski & Cycle. Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be: CONSIDERABLE on all steep slopes in terrain north of Baker Creek. South of Baker Creek, the danger is CONSIDERABLE on exposed wind-loaded terrain, MODERATE elsewhere. Moderate Danger: means natural avalanches are unlikely, human triggered avalanches are possible Considerable Danger: means that natural avalanches are possible, human triggered avalanches are probable on steep terrain. (in this case aprx 35 degree slope angles and steeper) Snowpack: With the full departure of storm 18, weve been left with a relatively wet and heavy slab of variable depth immediately overlying a faceted layer in most locations. This faceted layer has proven to be the weak link in most collapses and avalanches of the past few days, and unfortunately its not one that can be voted off the show. Additional weak layers further below continue to show slight instability. The good news is that the relatively warm temperatures have allowed the new snow to adjust to itself fairly quickly. You will find that the new snow is not as sensitive today as it was during the storm, unless youre on or near a wind slab, of which there are plenty lingering near exposed ridgelines. Inconsistent behavior has been the only common theme of instability in the area and there was no shortage of human-triggered avalanches yesterday. Some of them were triggered remotely, some only after several people had crossed them, and some have broken further upslope than anticipated. Some steep slopes that seem like they should avalanche arent reacting at all. A few more inches of snow and cloudy skies are expected today. But, on the off-chance that you find prolonged periods of direct sunlight this afternoon, steep sun-exposed slopes (especially those associated with rocks) will become more sensitive. In short, take this advisory exactly for what it is today: simply advice. Vigilance and careful judgment will be your most potent weapons today since it seems to be anyones guess as to what any individual slope will do. Mountain Weather: Overnight winds have calmed down a bit throughout the valley, with speeds averaging in the low- to mid-teens from the west. Mild temperatures continue with overnight lows in the low- to mid-20s coming in from a variety of weather stations. No new snow has been reported overnight. A mild disturbance is expected to pay us a visit this afternoon, bringing with it cloudy skies and the possibility of 1-2 inches of new snow in the mountains and rain in the valley. Moderate winds will come from the southwest and temperatures will be warm: 25-30 degrees in the mountains and mid- to upper-40s in the valley. Looking ahead this week, more precipitation is possible late Tuesday and Wednesday, with modest accumulation and mild temperatures. Warming is expected later in the week and rumors at the water cooler warn of another substantial storm arriving on Friday. Reported Conditions Titus Ridge Bald Mtn Valley Temperatures Overnight Low 19 24 23 6am Temperature 21 26 23 24 hr Maximum 25 33 47 Winds Current Winds 16 W 6 SW - 24 hr Average 20 W 11 W - Maximum Gust 40 W 37 W - Snow - Storm Interval # 18 Total Depth 74" 57" 26"