2 PM PST Saturday 31 January 2004 ********************************************************** ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS..... OLYMPICS...WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST... Considerable avalanche danger above 4000 feet and moderate below Saturday. Avalanche danger decreasing Sunday becoming considerable above 5-6000 feet and moderate below. WASHINGTON CASCADES EAST OF THE CREST... Moderate avalanche danger above about 6000 feet and low below Saturday and Sunday. MT HOOD AREA... Considerable avalanche danger above 5000 feet and moderate below Saturday. Avalanche danger decreasing Sunday becoming considerable above 6000 feet and moderate below. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS... Heavy wet snow or rain was seen to high elevations near and west of the crest Wednesday and Thursday. This caused an extensive avalanche cycle with numerous rather deep natural and human triggered slab and wet snow avalanches including from Mt Baker, Stevens, Snoqualmie, Crystal, White Pass and Mt Hood. Very strong west winds and heavy snow was seen on Friday with a cooling trend. Snowfall for 24 hours ending Saturday morning is generally about 1-2 feet at sites near and west of the crest. The more recent snow and the cooling trend began to shift instability to new snow layers on Friday. Reports from Friday include some skier triggered 6 inch to 1.5 foot slab avalanches on north to northeast aspects such as by the ski patrols at Crystal Mountain and Mt Hood Meadows. The upper mountain at Mt Hood Meadows has not even been open several days due to the stormy weather. Storm cycle slab layers should still be possible on steep lee north to east slopes Saturday morning. Bed surfaces have been reportedly been provided recently by crusts from late last week which may also be due to rapid cooling preventing a good bond. New reports from Saturday morning include 8-12 inch soft and wind slabs on steep north to east aspects released by ski cuts which were extensive at White Pass ski area. Bare hard scoured areas on the ridges were reported and Mt Baker also reported good snow conditions below ridges. Underlying wet snow from late last week should also be consolidating and stabilizing. Heavy graupel showers were reported at Snoqualmie Pass on Friday night which should not add to instability but can make for interesting ski conditions. Less snow and less avalanche danger is expected east of the crest where new snow and potential slab layers should be more localized to higher elevations. Further east no significant new snow since early in the month and a rock hard stable snow pack is reported at Mission Ridge. SATURDAY.... Winds and snow showers decreased on Saturday morning. This may have allowed slab layers on some steep lee north to east slopes to partly stabilize. Renewed light to moderate snow is expected on Saturday afternoon and night. This may allow new shallow slab layers to locally form on some steep lee north to east slopes or add slight loads and maintain existing slab layers. Back country travelers should use caution near avalanche terrain on Saturday. SUNDAY... Winds should decrease and snow showers should end on Sunday morning. Partly or mostly cloudy conditions are expected the Sunday afternoon. Increasing clouds and light snow should begin to spread to the south Cascades on Sunday night. This weather should allow recent slab layers to further partly stabilize on many slopes. The greatest chance of lingering slab layers should be on steep north to east slopes at higher elevations. Back country travelers should continue to use caution near avalanche terrain on Sunday at higher elevations and make their own periodic stability evaluations which can include quick pole and hand test or of course shovel and ski tests. **********************************************************