Northern Mountains

This is Scott in the Avalanche Center at 6:00 pm, Thursday, February
5, 2004, with an amended forecast.
DISCUSSION
Very high amplitude ridge of high pressure builds over the west today.
This puts CO on a NW flow pattern. Models keep some moisture around &
some indicated by sat images so will keep chance of some snow in the
forecast for Friday in N & a little ways into the C mtns. Sat night
into Sunday the next wave drops in, favoring San Juans initially on SW
flow, but models split it apart for Sunday. Stay tuned. The forecast
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, 0-2. Winds NE early to NW10-20, Gs 20s.
Lows 8 to 2
Friday & night: Morning showers, look for aftn clearing. Winds NW
10-20, Gs 30s. Highs 3-13, Lows 9 to 1
Saturday: Increasing aftn clouds. Winds SW 10-20, Highs 12-22
SNOWPACK
The recent snows continued to have very low water contents so were
very easy to move around with even light winds. Was interesting to
note that even though this storm brought very light weight snows &
little wind, the number of slides jumped up in a short time period.
Only pattern seems to be no activity reported off S aspects. Recent
snowpits have indicated several very weak layers on the S aspects so
it may be that just not enough weight to break through some of the
thicker south aspect melt freeze crusts. With winds continuing out of
the N I suspect we will add more weight to these south aspects which
would likely bring us to the point of failure on some of these south
aspects. The snowpack is tricky right now & should be treated with
caution. No fatalities in CO this season, actually not that many
incidents either, that goes against the odds. BC users should use
extra caution for the next few days as the snowpack is showing some
reactive traits, & easy failures
Several slides were reported today.
N mtns: 8 triggered slides from the N mtns, all N-NE aspect, all near
& below treeline.
The backcountry avalanche danger: N mtns: CONSIDERABLE on NW-E-SE
aspects near and above treeline where triggered releases are probable.
On other aspects near and above treeline MODERATE with pockets of
CONSIDERABLE. Below treeline the danger is MODERATE with pockets of
CON all aspects.
toepfer

Central Mountains

This is Scott in the Avalanche Center at 2:30 pm, Thursday, February
5, 2004.
DISCUSSION
Very high amplitude ridge of high pressure builds over the west today.
This puts CO on a NW flow pattern. Models keep some moisture around &
some indicated by sat images so will keep chance of some snow in the
forecast for Friday in N & a little ways into the C mtns. Sat night
into Sunday the next wave drops in, favoring San Juans initially on SW
flow, but models split it apart for Sunday. Stay tuned. The forecast
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy, 0-2. Winds N 5-15, Gs 20s. Lows 7 to 3
Friday: Mostly cloudy to aftn clearing. Winds NW10-20, Gs 30s. Highs
3-13, Lows 8 to + 2
Saturday: Some afternoon high clouds. Winds SW 10-20. Highs 15-25
SNOWPACK
The recent snows continued to have very low water contents so were
very easy to move around with even light winds. Was interesting to
note that even though this storm brought very light weight snows &
little wind, the number of slides jumped up in a short time period.
Only pattern seems to be no activity reported off S aspects. Recent
snowpits have indicated several very weak layers on the S aspects so
it may be that just not enough weight to break through some of the
thicker south aspect melt freeze crusts. With winds continuing out of
the N I suspect we will add more weight to these south aspects which
would likely bring us to the point of failure on some of these south
aspects. The snowpack is tricky right now & should be treated with
caution. No fatalities in CO this season, actually not that many
incidents either, that goes against the odds. BC users should use
extra caution for the next few days as the snowpack is showing some
reactive traits, & easy failures
Several slides reported today.
S mtns: 9 soft slabs from the San Juans, both triggered & natural. All
aspects except due south, a couple ran to the ground.
C mtns: 2 naturals reported 1 north & one east. Both involving the new
snow. 6 triggered slides on Grand Mesa, N aspects below treeline.
N mtns: 8 triggered slides from the N mtns, all N-NE aspect, all near
& below treeline.
C mtns: CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline, in the Crested Butte &
Monarch Pass zones there are pockets of HIGH and MODERATE with pockets
of CON below treeline, all aspects.

Southern Mountains

This is Scott in the Avalanche Center at 2:30 pm, Thursday, February
5, 2004.
DISCUSSION
Very high amplitude ridge of high pressure builds over the west today.
This puts CO on a NW flow pattern. Models keep some moisture around &
some indicated by sat images so will keep chance of some snow in the
forecast for Friday in N & a little ways into the C mtns. Sat night
into Sunday the next wave drops in, favoring San Juans initially on SW
flow, but models split it apart for Sunday. Stay tuned. The forecast
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, showers along the N side, 0-2. Winds N
5-15, Gs 20s. Lows 6 to 4
Friday & night: Mostly cloudy, aftn clearing. Winds NNW10-20. Highs
10-15, Lows 10 to 0
Saturday: Clear with some high clouds aftn. Winds SW 10-20. Highs
18-28
SNOWPACK
The recent snows continued to have very low water contents so were
very easy to move around with even light winds. Was interesting to
note that even though this storm brought very light weight snows &
little wind, the number of slides jumped up in a short time period.
Only pattern seems to be no activity reported off S aspects. Recent
snowpits have indicated several very weak layers on the S aspects so
it may be that just not enough weight to break through some of the
thicker south aspect melt freeze crusts. With winds continuing out of
the N I suspect we will add more weight to these south aspects which
would likely bring us to the point of failure on some of these south
aspects. The snowpack is tricky right now & should be treated with
caution. No fatalities in CO this season, actually not that many
incidents either, that goes against the odds. BC users should use
extra caution for the next few days as the snowpack is showing some
reactive traits, & easy failures
Several slides reported today.
S mtns: 9 soft slabs from the San Juans, both triggered & natural. All
aspects except due south, a couple ran to the ground.
C mtns: 2 naturals reported 1 north & one east. Both involving the new
snow. 6 triggered slides on Grand Mesa, N aspects below treeline.
N mtns: 8 triggered slides from the N mtns, all N-NE aspect, all near
& below treeline.
The backcountry avalanche danger:
S mtns: San Juans CONSIDERABLE above TL, and generally MODERATE below
TL but CONSIDERABLE on terrain steeper than 35 degrees.
toepfer