Northern Mountains

This is Scott in the Avalanche Center at 1:30 pm, Saturday, February 14, 2004.

DISCUSSION

Sundays weak system looks to arrive sometime around or after sunrise
Sunday. Looks a little weaker than last nights model run. A second
system for Sunday looks to have a little more punch, but weak
orographics and limited shallow moisture with it too. Little precip
expected for southern San Juans. NW wind flow through Monday night
should favor N mtns with some shower activity. Pattern looks to dry
out Tuesday into Wednesday. 

The forecast details:

Saturday night: Partly to sunrise mostly cloudy. Winds NW-W/5-15 G25. Lows 8-18.
Sunday: Tr-2, Steamboat may see 1-3. Winds West, 10-20, Gs 30s. Highs 12-22
Sunday Night: 1-3. Winds W 10-20, Gs 30. Lows 8-18
Monday: Decreasing showers by afternoon. Winds W 10-20. Highs 8-18

SNOWPACK

In the N mtns some small snowboarder triggered slabs reported, ESE
aspects from the Loveland Pass area. Most not big enough to bury a
person, though for one triggered slide, it took a loader to clear the
debris from Hwy 6/Loveland Pass.

The rotary snow plow on Bert Pass triggered some 18 deep slabs on
steep road cuts today. Though a rotary plow is a pretty big trigger.
Observation from N mtns said lots of people riding lots of lines
without much activity.

A late call from Abasin ski patrol reporting a remotely triggered
slide on SE aspect by hikers on east ridge of No Nmae Peak, WNW of the
Little Professor slide path. About 350 yds vertical, 1500 feet wide,
1-2 ft deep.

C mtns...3 slides reported, two were naturals off Seivers Ridge which
is visible from Aspen Highlands, NE aspect, likely a couple days old.
One was above TL the other fresher below TL: & one snowmobile
triggered slide in Red Lady Bowl near Crested Butte, ESE aspect.
No new activity reported from the S mtns.

With one exception, I will stick with the current ratings due to
recent moderate to strong North winds (dependent on elevation).
Steamboat zone will see a decrease in Danger. Temps today did warm-up
so there has been some easing in the fresh slab tension/energy. The
strength of the upper snowpack is increasing, but as we have said
before, the weak mid-pack layers are not going away anytime soon.
Right trigger in the wrong location could probably still trigger a
slide. Like LaChapelle said, Never trust a depth hoar snowpack.
In the N mtns ... near & above timberline the danger is rated
CONSIDERABLE. Below timberline the danger is MODERATE with pockets of
CONSIDERABLE on all aspects. Triggered releases are probable,
especially on steeper slopes and gullies. At Steamboat zone MOD over
all