Northern Mountains

This is Knox in the Avalanche Center at 2:15 pm, Friday, March 19,
2004.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures today are running 4-8 deg warmer than the same time
yesterday. As the sun and warm temps do their thing, wet avalanches
are likely this afternoon into the evening. Tonight, another very
light freeze at high elevations, while middle elevations near and
below TL do not freeze. Valley inversions will bring a light freeze
well below TL. This might be setting up for widespread wet releases on
Saturday and Sunday, which are expected to be warmer than today. The
forecast details:
Friday aftn & night: Partly cloudy. Winds W/10-15 G30s abv TL. Lows
27-37.
Saturday & Sunday: Clear to partly cloudy. Winds W/5-15 G30 abv TL in
Front Range & 10 Mile Range. Highs 45-55. Lows 27-37.
SNOWPACK
So far today, no significant slides have been reported, but the
afternoon is young. There should be numerous wet-loose releases into
this evening. A bigger threat for a widespread wet cycle will be Sat &
Sun, as mentioned in the discussion above. It will be interesting to
see if the wet avalanches favor one zone over another. For example,
the San Juans have already had a wet cycle and therefore may not see a
lot of releases this time. I dont know. And the Front Range has not
yet had a wet cycle. Is that area primed, or is the snowpack too
shallow to produce much? Again, I dont know. So we should all stay
tuned.
Certainly, though, if you have a backcountry tour planned for Saturday
or Sunday, you should plan on an early start and plan on being off
sunny aspects by late morning before they become thoroughly wet. Next,
remember that there may not be a freeze overnight, and that would mean
weak snow even early in the morning. And finally, a thin crust may
provide no strength to the snowpack if it is wet and cohesionless just
beneath the crust.
The backcountry danger ratings are:
Steamboat zone: spring conditions, MODERATE overall.
Front Range and Vail/Summit County zones: spring conditions, generally
MODERATE, but with pockets of CONSIDERABLE nr & abv TL, especially on
NW-E aspects, 35 degrees and steeper.
Williams

Central Mountains

This is Knox in the Avalanche Center at 2:15 pm, Friday, March 19,
2004.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures today are running 4-8 deg warmer than the same time
yesterday. As the sun and warm temps do their thing, wet avalanches
are likely this afternoon into the evening. Tonight, another very
light freeze at high elevations, while middle elevations near and
below TL do not freeze. Valley inversions will bring a light freeze
well below TL. This might be setting up for widespread wet releases on
Saturday and Sunday, which are expected to be warmer than today. The
forecast details:
Friday aftn & night: Mostly clear. Winds WSW/5-15 G25 abv TL. Lows
27-37.
Saturday & Sunday: Clear to partly cloudy. Winds W/5-15. Highs 45-55.
Lows 27-37.
SNOWPACK
So far today, no significant slides have been reported, but the
afternoon is young. There should be numerous wet-loose releases into
this evening. A bigger threat for a widespread wet cycle will be Sat &
Sun, as mentioned in the discussion above. It will be interesting to
see if the wet avalanches favor one zone over another. For example,
the San Juans have already had a wet cycle and therefore may not see a
lot of releases this time. I dont know. And the Front Range has not
yet had a wet cycle. Is that area primed, or is the snowpack too
shallow to produce much? Again, I dont know. So we should all stay
tuned.
Certainly, though, if you have a backcountry tour planned for Saturday
or Sunday, you should plan on an early start and plan on being off
sunny aspects by late morning before they become thoroughly wet. Next,
remember that there may not be a freeze overnight, and that would mean
weak snow even early in the morning. And finally, a thin crust may
provide no strength to the snowpack if it is wet and cohesionless just
beneath the crust.
The backcountry danger ratings are:
C Mtns: spring conditions, overall LOW early morning, MODERATE by late
morning & afternoon.
Williams

Southern Mountains

This is Knox in the Avalanche Center at 2:15 pm, Friday, March 19,
2004.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures today are running 4-8 deg warmer than the same time
yesterday. As the sun and warm temps do their thing, wet avalanches
are likely this afternoon into the evening. Tonight, another very
light freeze at high elevations, while middle elevations near and
below TL do not freeze. Valley inversions will bring a light freeze
well below TL. This might be setting up for widespread wet releases on
Saturday and Sunday, which are expected to be warmer than today. The
forecast details:
Friday aftn & night: Mostly clear. Winds W/5-15. Lows 27-37.
Saturday & Sunday: Mostly clear. Winds SW/5-15. Highs 45-55. Lows
27-37.
SNOWPACK
So far today, no significant slides have been reported, but the
afternoon is young. There should be numerous wet-loose releases into
this evening. A bigger threat for a widespread wet cycle will be Sat &
Sun, as mentioned in the discussion above. It will be interesting to
see if the wet avalanches favor one zone over another. For example,
the San Juans have already had a wet cycle and therefore may not see a
lot of releases this time. I dont know. And the Front Range has not
yet had a wet cycle. Is that area primed, or is the snowpack too
shallow to produce much? Again, I dont know. So we should all stay
tuned.
Certainly, though, if you have a backcountry tour planned for Saturday
or Sunday, you should plan on an early start and plan on being off
sunny aspects by late morning before they become thoroughly wet. Next,
remember that there may not be a freeze overnight, and that would mean
weak snow even early in the morning. And finally, a thin crust may
provide no strength to the snowpack if it is wet and cohesionless just
beneath the crust.
The backcountry danger ratings are:
W San Juans: spring conditions, overall LOW early morning, MODERATE by
late morning & afternoon.
Wolf Creek Pass area: spring conditions, LOW overall.
Williams