This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued by
   the U.S. Forest Service, Glacier Country Avalanche Center at 7:00 AM,
   Saturday, January 3rd, 2004, for the Glacier Park and Flathead and
   Kootenai National Forest areas.


   Hazard Analysis:

   Between 5,500 and 7,500 ft. we are currently rating the avalanche
   danger as CONSIDERABLE on steep, smooth, wind loaded slopes. On wind
   sheltered slopes above 5,500 ft, we are currently rating the avalanche
   danger as MODERATE on steep, unanchored terrain.  Below 5,500 ft. the
   avalanche danger is being rated as LOW.


   These danger ratings expire at midnight, Saturday, January 3^rd 2004.
   The outlook Saturday thru Monday is for continued unsettled snow and
   avalanche conditions.


   Because of the general nature of this advisory message each
   backcountry party will always need to make their own time and
   site-specific avalanche hazard evaluations.


   WEATHER ANALYSIS:

   Again we had a fast moving weather disturbance that brought both snow
   and cold to our region and it appears that it will continue with this
   pattern into next week.  The storm tracks seem to be staying south of
   area at least with the more significant snowfalls.  Within our region
   the northern electronic sites were recording less snow accumulations
   than did our southern electronic sites, with .5 of snow water
   equivalent (SWE) in the north to 1.0 plus of SWE in the Swan, Mission
   and Cabinet Ranges.  Wind loading was noted but variable in direction
   as noted from observation reports.  The other significant weather
   change since Tuesday is the colder temperatures with Thursday and
   Friday's temperatures dropping into the single digits and low teens
   across the region.


   SNOWPACK ANALYSIS:

   Our backcountry observations Friday were in the Southern Whitefish
   Divide near Whitefish and from Horse Mountain in the East Cabinets
   south of Libby.  We also had a report from the Marion/Dickey Ridge
   near Essex on Thursday.


   Our greatest instability currently is associated with the recent new
   snow both from Monday/Tuesday's storm and Thursday's/Friday's storm.
   These near surface and surface layers are unconsolidated and failing
   on weakly bonded interfaces.  The cold temperatures experienced and
   expected, will continue to enhance these weak layers and weaken old
   buried crusts that lie above a strong buried slab.  In the more
   shallow snow packs the colder temperatures could weaken the base layer
   at the ground surface.


   AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION:

   Between the elevations of 5,500 and 7,500 ft. we are currently rating
   the avalanche danger as CONSIDERABLE on steep, smooth and open, wind
   loaded slopes.  Unstable wind slab layers are probable on steep
   leeward terrain. Natural avalanches are possible, while human
   triggered avalanches are probable.  Backcountry travelers should be
   very cautious in steep, unanchored, wind loaded terrain.  Be aware of
   potentially dangerous areas of unstable snow.  Because of the variable
   nature of the winds, the suspect slopes cover a variety of aspects.


   On wind sheltered slopes above 5,500 ft, unstable slab layers are
   possible on steep, unanchored terrain. Natural avalanches are
   unlikely, but human triggered avalanches are possible. Backcountry
   travelers should use caution in wind sheltered steeper terrain on all
   aspects.


   Below 5,500 feet we are rating the avalanche danger as LOW. A shallow

   snowpack with numerous vegetative and terrain anchors has produced a
   snow condition there that is generally stable with only isolated areas
   of instability.  Natural avalanches are very unlikely, while human
   triggered avalanches are unlikely.  Backcountry travel is generally
   safe.  Normal backcountry caution is advised.


   WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK:

   As Thursday/Friday's storm passes out of our region another storm
   approaches our region on Saturday that will interact with artic air
   moving in from east of the Divide.  Snow fall could range from 4 to 8
   inches above 6000 feet with stronger winds from the N/NE. Low
   temperatures will be below zero.  Reference the link for more details.

   [29]Current Western Montana National Weather Service Backcountry
   Weather Forecast


   New snowfall amounts with our recent accumulations, in combination
   with the wind and cold temperature have the potential to destabilize
   the existing snow pack.  Backcountry travelers will need to remain
   alert for isolated pockets of unstable, wind loaded snow.  Watch also
   for the cold temperatures to weaken more deeply buried weak layers.


   The next regularly scheduled update of this advisory message will be
   on Tuesday, January 6th, 2004.


   We will begin hosting next week our annual level one public avalanche
   awareness session. The program is free of charge and consists of a
   series of four evening lectures at the Summit Health and Fitness
   Center in Kalispell. These will be on Mondays and Wednesdays, Jan.
   5,7,12, and 14, 6:30 to 9:30 PM. Field sessions will be held on
   Saturdays, Jan. 10 and 17. No pre-registration is required and folks
   only need show up at the door. For more information please call Stan
   Bones in the evenings at 837-6022.


   Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of
   snow pack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day
   the advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a
   marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts
   can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist.