This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued by
   the U.S. Forest Service Glacier Country Avalanche Center at 7:30 AM,
   Friday, January 23rd, 2004, for the Glacier Park and Flathead and
   Kootenai National Forest areas.

                              HAZARD ANALYSIS

   We are currently rating the avalanche danger as MODERATE on steep,
   open slopes between the elevations of 5,500 7,500 ft.  Below 5,500 ft
   the danger rating is LOW.
   These danger ratings expire at midnight, Friday, January 23rd, 2004.
   The outlook Friday through Monday is for the avalanche danger to
   increase if the  predicted weather system materializes with the snow
   accumulations and winds that are expected.
   Because of the general nature of this advisory message each
   backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site
   specific avalanche hazard evaluations.

   WEATHER ANALYSIS: 
   Since Tuesday the weather over Northwestern Montana has remained
   mild.  Little to no snow fall from Tuesday to Thursday AM.  Although
   most all the sites have picked up one to three tenths since midnight
   with the exception of the Cabinets and the Purcells.  Temperatures
   ranged from the upper twenties for the maximums and low twenties for
   the minimums.  Winds have been variable especially in the Middle Fork
   since Tuesday and picked up out of the SW on Thursday when winds were
   12 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph out of the SW .
   SNOWPACK ANALYSIS: 
   Our backcountry observations Thursday were on Cable Mountain in the
   East Cabinet Range on the Kootenai National Forest and from Werner
   Peak on the Whitefish Divide.  We also had reports on Wednesday from a
   bowl near Essex and the Crystal Creek drainage just north of Columbia
   Falls.
   The snow pack continues to settle and consolidate.  Snowpit
   observations revealed the greatest instability with the shallow
   surface layers.  Currently snow pack strength is building in the
   deeper snow packs although there still is instability in the shallow
   snow packs associated with higher elevation windward slopes.  The
   deeper snow packs were revealing moderate shears with shallow packs
   revealing some easy shears over faceted layers.  Cutting into the
   faceted layers over these shallow snowpacks especially with
   snowmobiles could result in triggering slide activity.  Make
   investigations specific to the areas you will be traveling.
   AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION: 
   Between 5,500 and 7,500 ft we are currently rating the avalanche
   danger as MODERATE on steep, open slopes.  Unstable slab layers are
   possible on all steep aspects.  Natural avalanches are unlikely, while
   human triggered avalanches are possible.  Backcountry travelers should
   use caution in steeper terrain, particularly on cold or recently wind
   loaded slopes.
   Below 5,500 ft across the region we are rating the avalanche danger as
   LOW.  Snow there is generally stable with only isolated areas of
   instability. Natural avalanches are very unlikely, while human
   triggered avalanches are  unlikely.  Backcountry travel is generally
   safe.  Normal caution is advised. .
   WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK:

      [29]Current Western Montana National Weather Service Backcountry
                              Weather Forecast

   A potent storm has started to move across Western Montana early this
   morning.  Snowfall is expected to be heavy at times over the upper
   elevations.  Snowfall amounts could range from 6 to 12 inches by
   Saturday morning.  Numerous snow showers will remain in the wake of
   this system as a cold arctic airmass settles into our region Saturday
   night.  With this arctic air mass expect the continuation of snow in
   the mountains through the middle of next week.
   These conditions should escalate the avalanche danger to the
   considerable level and possibly higher in areas with heavy
   accumulations and wind loading.  Initially winds are expected to load
   from the W/SW but likely wind direction changes on Saturday which
   could come from the North.  Pay attention to wind loading resulting
   from this weather systems arrival.  Backcountry travelers will need to
   remain alert for the effects of this new storm in areas they will
   traverse.
   The next regularly scheduled update of this advisory message will be
   on Tuesday, January 27th, 2004.
   Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of
   snow pack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day
   the advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a
   marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts
   can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist.