CSAC Note - We have nothing archived for 11/20. The first advisory is 
from 11/19 and the second is from 11/21, but wouldn't have been available
until that afternoon.

This is Nick in the Avalanche Center at 3:05 pm, Friday, November 19, 
2004.

 Southern Mountains

 DISCUSSION

 The weather models are handling the speed of our incoming storm quite
 differently, especially by Sunday. If the slower solution verifies
 there will be more total accumulation over the weekend. Look for snow
 to begin in the Steamboat zone this evening and slowly spread
 southward overnight. This system will favor the Front Range with
 upslope conditions, especially west of Ft Collins, and the San Juans
 as the low tracks along the southern CO border. Look for temperatures
 to fall about 10 degrees and winds to increase slightly through the
 weekend. Snow could continue to fall into early week if the system
 stalls. The forecast details:

 Tonight: Mostly cloudy by morning, 0-1 possible. Winds S-SW/5-15. Lows
 14-24.

 Saturday: Cloudy, showers-light snow, 3-5 favoring S side RMP. Winds
 S-SW/5-15 G20. Highs 16-26.

 Sat night: Light snow, 4-8, again favoring S side of RMP. Winds
 SSW/5-15 G20s. Lows 13-23.

 Sunday: Light snow, 4-7 possible. Winds S/5-15. Highs 14-24.

 SNOWPACK

 If the snow forecast verifies over the weekend we will see an
 increased backcountry avalanche danger by later Saturday. Slopes of
 most concern are near and above timberline that face NW-NE due to a
 shallow, and generally weak, snow cover in most mountain areas. The
 exceptions are in the Steamboat zone and around Wolf Ck Pass. But even
 in these areas wherever the snow has remained shallow the new snow
 will add stress to a faceted snow structure at the higher elevations.

 Consistent, easy shears were found today in the Loveland Pass area
 where the snowpack was 0-75 cm deep.

 In the Western San Juans the backcountry avalanche danger near and
 above treeline on NW-N-NE aspects is LOW with pockets of MODERATE. A
 persistent weak layer of faceted snow near the ground could fail under
 the weight of a skier. On other aspects near and above treeline, the
 danger is LOW. Watch for an increasing danger.

 In the Wolf Creek Pass area the backcountry danger remains overall LOW
 for now at all elevations and aspects. Watch for potential significant
 drifting in avalanche starting zones by Sunday.

 N Logan


 This is Dale in the Avalanche Center at 3:45 pm, Sunday, November 21,
 2004.

 Southern Mountains

 DISCUSSION

 A storm system southern CA swept abundant snows into southern CO but
 did little for the N mtns. In the San Juans light to moderate snows
 have continued all day especially in W San Juans. Expect snows will
 taper this afternoon but may increase for a short time this evening.

 As the storm moves eastward near El Paso it will fuel some clouds and
 even a few showers over the far south on Monday. A weak system on
 Tuesday may bring cooler temperatures and a little snow to the N mtns
 on Tuesday.

 The forecast details:
 
 Tonight: Light-mod afternoon snow, 2-4" on S sides; 1-3" on N sides,
 becoming mostly cloudy, light snow overnight, 1-3" add. In E San Juans
 (Wolf Creek Pass area) only a T-2" this afternoon and a T-2"
 overnight. Winds S/10-20 G30s above TL. Lows 12-22.

 Monday: Cloudy, snow showers, T-2" decrease in afternoon. Winds
 V/5-15. Highs 20-30. Lows 10-20.

 Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for afternoon showers. Winds W-NW/5-15. 
 Highs 20-30.

 SNOWPACK

 Storm totals in San Juans: about 16 to 30+ inches with the higher
 amounts on Red Mountain and Lizardhead Passes. There was just enough
 southerly wind to cause blowing snow overnight, so expect wind-drifted
 soft slab at higher elevations. At lower elevations the recent snows
 are perched on surface hoar, crust, or facets (or all three). Control
 work along 550 resulted in 6 soft slab avalanches all treeline and
 running on surface hoar. No visibility above TL. Also today we
 received word of an ice climber injured in an avalanche outside of
 Silverton (Eureka). Locally in the Wolf Creek Pass where less snow
 fell forecasters Knox, Mark, and Spencer report fewer problems.

 Control work by the ski area resulted in about a half dozen shallow
 soft slabs. For the West San Juans I am keeping the danger at HIGH
 with the WARNING in effect. Both natural and human triggered
 avalanches are likely. Backcountry travelers in the W San Juans should
 avoid all slopes steeper than 30 degrees and avoid being under steep
 slopes. Ice climbers should be especially leery. In the Wolf Creek
 Pass area and East San Juans I am easing the backcountry danger to
 CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline, MODERATE below treeline.

 Good snow fell in the Crested Butte zone of the C Mtns with early
 reports this morning of 6 inches at Crested Butte, McClure Pass, 8;
 Gothic, 8.5; Marble, 9; and estimating from remote instrumentation
 about 18 inches at Schofield Pass. No afternoon updates to report. The
 backcountry avalanche danger in the Crested Butte zone and including
 the entire Elks and W Elk Mountains for areas above 10,000 feet the
 danger is MODERATE, but pockets of CONSIDERABLE exist in Kebler and
 Schofield Pass areas. Below about 10,000 feet the danger is LOW with
 pockets of MODERATE. Extra caution is needed for backcountry travel in
 the Crested Butte zone.

 The rest of the C mtns and all of the N mtns basically from Aspen to
 Leadville and northward and including the Sawatch Range were the
 have-nots in terms of snowfall, so the backcountry avalanche danger
 remains generally LOW below timberline. Near and above treeline the
 danger is LOW with pockets of MODERATE on NW-N-NE aspects, and
 cross-drifted gullies on slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Normal
 cautions are needed in the C & N mtns.

 Atkins