Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
Backcountry Forecast

Contact:  Bob Kasun (208) 765-7414 or Kevin Davis (208) 265-6686, Ed Odegaard (208) 245-6209
E-mail address:  rkasun@fs.fed.us, kgdavis@fs.fed.us, eodegaard@fs.fed.us

Good Morning, this is Kevin Davis from the Idaho Panhandle National Forest Avalanche Center 
with a backcountry update for January 14th, and an outlook for the 15th and 16th, 2005.  
This report does not apply to local ski areas within the forecast region and will remain 
in effect through midnight, January 14th.  

WEATHER

There is a slight chill in the air this morning with Valley temperatures hovering just 
above the 0F mark, yes that’s Fahrenheit.  The low pressure that brought our region 1-3 feet 
of snow has moved over the central US.  Our region is now under the influence of high pressure 
moving eastward that is driving northerly winds and forcing the temperature downward.  Today 
the weather service says we can expect mostly sunny conditions and daytime high temperatures 
in the teens and light winds out of the north.  Wind chill factors will put the temperatures 
near the 0F range.  The outlook for Saturday and Sunday is for continuing cold and clear weather 
on Saturday with highs in the teens and wind chill factors in the minus category.  A 40% chance 
of snow exists for Sunday as another low pressure moves into our region off the coast.  Even 
with all the snow we have gotten in the last week our seasonal snowpack levels are well below 
average and the snow that is on the ground is very low in water content.  Off trail travel is 
difficult due to relatively deep, 4-5 feet, unconsolidated snow.       

Avalanche conditions throughout the St. Joe Mountain region are rated as CONSIDERABLE on slopes 
greater than 35 degrees above 5,000 feet on all aspects.  Natural avalanches are possible while 
human triggered avalanches are likely.  Avalanche conditions below 5,000 feet are rated as 
MODERATE.  Natural avalanches are unlikely while human triggered avalanches are possible.  The 
greatest avalanche hazard will exist with windloaded north and east ridgetops. 

Snowpack

An avalanche was triggered on a north aspect up Prospector Creek on Wednesday when a logging 
outfit crossed a steep slope.  No one was caught in the slide and it seems to have been triggered 
after a grader passed under a steep slope and the loggers came upon the debris across the road 
on their way out.  The weak layer responsible for the slide was buried surface hoar.  The St. Joe 
Mountains have been receiving the majority of the snowfall this week and avalanche conditions have 
been fairly serious due to numerous weak layers, surface hoar and advanced facets, in the pack.  
These conditions exist on all aspects and windloading is a factor due to recent high winds and 
easily transported snow.  Avalanche hazard will remain the same with the expected weather for the 
weekend.

Terrain

Caution should be exercised on all aspects especially near ridgelines.  Buried surface hoar exists 
on numerous aspects and will remain unstable due to the cold temperatures and newly loaded snow.  
Windloaded terrain on steep slopes should be avoided on all aspects. 

The next forecast will be issued on January 21st, 2005.

Avalanche conditions change for better or worse continually. Backcountry travelers should be prepared 
to assess current conditions for themselves, plan their routes of travel accordingly, and never travel 
alone. Backcountry travelers can reduce their exposure to avalanche hazards by utilizing timbered trails 
and ridge routes and by avoiding open and exposed terrain with slope angles of 30 degrees or more. 
Backcountry travelers should carry the necessary avalanche rescue equipment such as a shovel, avalanche 
probe or probe ski poles, a rescue beacon and a well-equipped first aid kit.

Have a safe and pleasant weekend.