ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS
March 19, 2006

OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES, MT HOOD AREA-
Sunday morning: MODERATE avalanche danger above 5000 feet and LOW 
below.

Sunday afternoon: Danger increasing to MODERATE all elevations 
and aspects.

Sunday night and Monday morning: Overall LOW danger.

Monday late morning until evening: Danger again increasing to 
MODERATE all elevations and aspects. 

SNOWPACK ANALYSIS

Almost no new snow was reported this morning, but in the past six 
days, total snowfall accumulations have ranged from about 4 to 20 
inches. This morning the top snow layer, which is made up of the 
new snow from the last few days, has settled 1 to 3 inches, and 
that shows an overall stabilizing trend in the surface layer. 
Temperatures have remained cold enough to keep soft, dry snow on 
northwest through northeast facing slopes, and that is where the 
best quality snow for backcountry touring will be found. No 
easily-identified weak layers have been reported in the top snow 
layers.

Meanwhile intermittent sunshine and warmer temperatures on 
southeast to west facing slopes have settled, densified, and 
refrozen the surface snow, forming hard or breakable crusts. 

Lastly, at elevations above 5-6000 feet there are pockets of wind 
slab that formed several days ago, and could produce some shallow 
human-triggered soft slab releases, especially on steep north 
through east aspects. 

Today sunshine will soften those sun-exposed slopes once more, 
but cool air temperatures should keep these slopes from getting 
wet other than right on the surface. Still though, this will 
increase the chance for shallow surface wet or damp releases on 
steep sunny aspects both Sunday and Monday. This should refreeze 
over night, forming a strong crust on east to south to west 
aspects. More northerly aspects should stay cool and dry, and 
should see continued slow settlement and strengthening in the 
surface snow layer. 

SUNDAY AND MONDAY-

Mornings will begin with hard sun crusts on southeast through 
west aspects, but then clear skies and plenty of sunshine will 
soften and thaw crusts on southerly aspects by afternoon. That 
means the avalanche danger will vary from LOW early in the day to 
MODERATE by afternoon, because of the chance for surface wet 
releases.

The cooler northerly aspects have high-quality dry snow, 
especially above 5000 feet. And above about 5000 feet along the 
ridges, winds from several days ago formed a few pockets of wind 
slab. Therefore the avalanche danger should remain overall 
MODERATE both Sunday and Monday on all northerly aspects and 
along the ridges, because of the chance for human-triggered 
releases in the new snow layer that formed the last 6 days. There 
have been no significant weak layers observed and no reports of 
crack propagation the last 2 days. Therefore we think any human-
triggered slabs should be small, but small does not mean 
harmless. We feel that normal backcountry caution is adequate 
right now.

One more thing to watch for: there has been recent cornice 
formation along the ridges, and with warming temperatures these 
will likely be unstable. Stay away from cornices; they are too 
unpredictable. 

&&