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  INSTITUTE FOR SNOW AND AVALANCHE RESEARCH  DAVOS
               NATIONAL AVALANCHE BULLETIN NO. 96
           from Saturday, 3 March 2007, 18:30 hours
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  IN THE VALAIS AND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE ALPS A VERY 
CRITICAL AVALANCHE SITUATION FOR BACKCOUNTRY AND FREERIDING 
ACTIVITIES
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CURRENT CONDITIONS

Friday night it snowed far and wide, it was dry only in southern 
Ticino. In the western and central parts of the northern flank 
of the Alps, in the Valais and the Gotthard region, 40 to 60 cm 
of snow fell above approximately 2200 m. The snow line was about 
2200 m for a time. The midday temperature at 2000 m was zero 
degrees. Strong, extremely gusty westerly winds prevailed in the 
west and the north, moderate winds blew in the south and the 
east. Between Thursday and Saturday in the Valais, on the 
northern flank of the Alps, in the Gotthard region and the 
northern Surselva above approximately 2200 m, 70 to 120 cm of 
new snow fell. In the southern border regions, 30 to 70 cm of 
snow fell. The new snow amounts increase markedly with rising 
altitude. 
Through the rain the snowpack has been moistened well into 
altitude zones at around 2200 m. The bonding of new snow and 
snowdrift to the old snowpack as well as the bonding within the 
newer layers of snow are partly still unfavourable. Since 
yesterday, numerous medium to large sized natural avalanches 
have been released.


SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT

By Sunday morning in the Valais and along the northern flank of 
the Alps above approximately 2000 m, a further 5 to 15 cm of 
snow is expected. From the west and the south it will become 
increasingly sunny during the day. The midday temperatures at 
2000 m are between plus 2 degrees in the west and minus 2 
degrees in the southeast. The freezing level will ascend towards 
2500 m during the afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds will 
continue to prevail during the night. In the morning, winds will 
shift to the west and decrease in strength to light to moderate. 
Especially during the night additional snowdrift accumulations 
will form.


AVALANCHE DANGER FORECAST FOR SUNDAY

Valais; northern flank of the Alps; northern Ticino; northern 
and central Grisons; Lower Engadine:
  Considerable Avalanche Danger (Level 3)
The avalanche prone locations are on steep slopes in all 
aspects above approximately 2200 m. In the Valais, the 
Gotthard region and along the northern flank of the Alps, 
isolated natural avalanches can still be expected. A single 
backcountry skier can trigger medium sized, in some cases 
even large sized avalanches. Thus, for backcountry touring 
and freeriding, very critical conditions prevail. 
In the remaining regions of this danger level the avalanches 
are somewhat smaller. Nonetheless, they can also be triggered 
easily.

Central Ticino; Upper Engadine and the southern valleys of 
Grisons:
  Moderate Avalanche Danger (Level 2)
The avalanche prone locations are on steep slopes in all 
aspects above approximately 2000 m. The fresh snowdrift can 
easily be released, although the amounts of snow usually 
remain small. Snowdrift accumulations should be avoided where 
possible.

Due to the rising temperatures during the morning hours the 
danger of wet avalanches below about 2200 m will increase in all 
regions. In those regions with a great deal of new snow, exposed 
sections of isolated transportation routes are endangered.


TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY

On Monday and Tuesday it will become brighter in the east 
through the foehn wind. In the west and the south, a bit of snow 
will fall. The avalanche danger will slowly decrease.