Vail
====

Keywords: CONSIDERABLE, MODERATE, avalanche danger, explosive, 
          human triggered,  path, slab, slabs, trough,    

Weather Synopsis

   Posted at 2:30 pm on December 31, 2006
   
   Another trough is digging south through the Great Basin this
   afternoon. This one looks to be heading into Mexico with half the
   storm energy splitting to the north of Colorado and the other half
   dropping south into Mexico. Satellite images show quite a bit of
   cloudiness over the Great Basin this afternoon, which will rotate over
   Colorado this evening, bringing us some mostly cloudy skies, which
   will help keep temperatures a little warmer. These high clouds are
   forecast to hang around through tomorrow. Nothing else storm wise on
   the horizon.
 
   Several avalanches were reported today, though most ran yesterday.
   Also, one very close call occurred this afternoon off Loveland Pass.
   On Vail Pass a couple of small naturals ran on E and ESE aspects, one
   at 11,800 ft and one below treeline. One snowmobile triggered
   slide ran in Shrine Bowl, on an east aspect at 11,800 feet. This one
   ran 350 vertical and about 75 feet wide. Fractures ranged from 2 to 7
   feet deep. One soft slab was reported from Commadore Gulch north of
   Red Mountain Pass yesterday. This one was triggered by a snowmobile on
   a north aspect 2 feet deep, 75 feet wide and 150 vertical and started
   above treeline. Also 5 hard slabs reported around Independence Pass,
   Chaffee County side, around 12,500 feet in elevation. Fracture lines
   2-4 feet deep, NW-NNE and SSW aspects. These were a few days old.
   At 12:40 this afternoon near Loveland Pass two glissaders triggered
   a soft slab on a path known as the Ironing Board just south of Dave's
   Wave (the slide we reported as Dave's Wave this morning actually was
   in "The Swell"). This open face funnels into a gully terrain trap.
   West aspect, ran an estimated 500 vertical, 300 feet wide, with a
   fracture about 1 to 1.5 feet deep. Estimates place the fracture at
   about 12,200 feet. Reports indicated one person was buried, but was
   dug out, maybe some minor injuries. Current reports have them walking
   down towards Highway 6. Summit Search and Rescue is on scene helping
   out.
   
   Toepfer/Mellick
   
Weather

     Last Night
   Observed Today
   Observed Tonight
   Forecast Tomorrow
   Forecast Tomorrow Night
   Forecast 
   Temperature 0-10 20-30 10-20 22-32 10-20
   Wind Speed 10-20 10-20 5-15 g 20s 5-15 5-15 g 20s
   Wind Direction NNW N W WSW W
   Sky Cover Partly Cloudy Mostly Clear Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy
   Mostly Cloudy
   Snow(in) 0 0 0 0 0
   
Snowpack Discussion
   It seems that most of the recent avalanche activity has been from the
   Summit County area. (See the above weather discussion for state wide
   slide reports). Loveland Pass has pretty much been the center of the
   action. A very lucky pair of glissaders today near Loveland Pass.
   Enough said there. In this business there is a saying that unusual
   weather patterns create unusual avalanche activity and that certainly
   seems to be the case from the last two strong upslope storms. More or
   less easterly winds hit across the state during these last storm
   cycles, which is unusual, especially in such a close time frame.
   Westerly aspects have been prone to triggered activity, both explosive
   and human triggered for the last 2-3 days. We have also had avalanches
   reported from the usual suspects, near and above treeline on the
   colder aspects, N-E-SE. This is a good time to evaluate terrain and
   snowpack with care. Certainly stick to the main golden rule of one
   person at a time. With all that said, I will drop the pockets of
   CONSIDERABLE from below treeline this afternoon. Out of all the
   activity reported recently, only one slide has started below treeline.
   
Avalanche Danger

   The avalanche danger in the Vail/Summit County Zone is MODERATE with
   pockets of CONSIDERABLE near and above treeline, all aspects.
   MODERATE overall below treeline