This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued by the U.S. Forest Service Glacier Country Avalanche Center at 8:00 AM, Friday, March 2nd for the Glacier Park and Flathead and Kootenai National Forest areas. HAZARD ANALYSIS The avalanche danger between 5,500 and 7,500 ft. elevation is currently being rated as CONSIDERABLE. Below 5,500 ft. elevation the danger is rated MODERATE. These danger ratings expire at midnight, Friday, March 2nd. The outlook is for the avalanche danger to remain near current levels through the weekend. Because of the general nature of this advisory message, each backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site specific avalanche hazard evaluations. WEATHER ANALYSIS: The weather side of the avalanche triangle is always a key factor to assessing the avalanche hazard. The recent weather has not been extreme by any means but local influences of snowfall accumulations have been highly variable. New snow water equivalent gains have ranged from .2 to 1.7 of an inch of snow water equivalent since Tuesday. The higher end of the range was received in the West Cabinets. The East Cabinets, Northern Swan and the Park have all been in the mid range of accumulation of SWE. This is from recorded site information and the "squally" nature of the weather patterns have produced more snow accumulation than what site information indicates in certain terrain. The temperatures have been on the cool side with temps yesterday in the mid teen for highs. Winds have been at least moderate at ridge tops and were observed transporting snow in the Middle Fork Corridor. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS: Our backcountry observations Thursday were from Noisy Basin and Southern Whitefish Divide on the Flathead National Forest, Star Mountain in the West Cabinets on the Kootenai National Forest and near Marias Pass in Glacier National Park. Surface layers in the top 50 to 100 cms of the snowpack are reflecting the most weak interfaces. The new snow received in the last week has remained soft and boot penetration is usually down to 40 to 50 cms. The colder temperatures have maintained unsettled soft surface layers and have maintained poorly bonded interfaces, although these interfaces are still not sharp or snappy. The interface with the prominent ice layer which is down 80 to 100 cms is snappy but takes a hard force to gain a release. Wind loading was apparent in the Middle Fork Corridor. AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION: We're currently rating the avalanche danger as CONSIDERABLE on slopes between the elevations of 5,500 and 7,500' where unstable loose snow as well as unstable surface and near surface slab layers are probable on steep terrain. Natural avalanches are possible, while human triggered avalanches are probable. Backcountry travelers should be very cautious in steeper terrain. Be aware of potentially dangerous areas of unstable snow. Below 5,500' elevation the avalanche danger is rated as MODERATE. Unstable surface slab layers atop melt-freeze ice are possible there. Natural avalanches are unlikely, but human triggered avalanches are possible. Backcountry travelers should use caution in steep, open terrain on all aspects. WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: ` A weak ridge of high pressure will move over the area Friday and will restrict the shower activity mainly to the mountains. Significant accumulations are not expected until Friday night which is when a warm front is expected to move across the area producing moderate snowfall amounts at all elevations. The snow will gradually diminish early Saturday as another ridge of high pressure moves over the area. Expect warmer and drier conditions for the remainder of the weekend. The current conditions are variable and may seem stable but in the past week skier triggered slides have occurred. Yesterday a snowmobiler was caught and buried in slide. Until this new snow fall has time to settle and bond, precaution is the word. A warming trend over the weekend may enable this to happen or it may exasperate the problem. There is a potential for an inverted snowpack scenario with a heavier more dense snow overlying a colder weak layer or layers, which could spell instability. There is a potential with the high pressure and associated warming trend to create problems for point releases especially on southerly and westerly aspects by Sunday and potentially slide activity on those same exposures. Be alert and as always do site specific pit investigations on slopes you intend to cross or play upon. Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of snow pack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day the advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist. The next avalanche advisory will be on Tuesday, March 6, 2007.